I had a longer response, but my f'n (fine) ISP dropped my adsl connection and my hotmail connection timed out grrrrrrrrr. Formula here: http://mathworld.wolfram.com/PoissonTheorem.html In your example: p = 0.0003 (100000 per month downto interval of ms) n = 1 (length of request time) k = 2 (what to check probability of) Note: you are interested in k>=2 so you will have to calulate 3,4, etc. Also note that your demand isn't going to follow a random distribution. But your history logs will. So it makes more sense to divide your analysis into smaller chunks. ie 4 hr blocks, and use traffic history / projections to calculate p for that given time block. Also it may be more useful to project the number of times that the tolerance specified was exceeded. Probability of 2 requests initiating in the same ms = 0.0000000450 I will do as an XLS using request time, traffic in block time and interval in blocktime to build a probaility table. If interested. HTH Eric Lets say you have 1 page that scores 1,000,000 unique visitors a month here's what I came up with: 1,000,000/30/24/60/60/1000 = 0.000385 So that means that 0.0003 people a milisecond hit the sight, correct? what is the % chance of 2 people hitting on the same milisecond (and math equation for that?) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Archives: http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/ To Unsubscribe visit http://www.houseoffusion.com/index.cfm?sidebar=lists&body=lists/cf_talk or send a message to [EMAIL PROTECTED] with 'unsubscribe' in the body. _________________________________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com. Share information about yourself, create your own public profile at http://profiles.msn.com. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Archives: http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/ To Unsubscribe visit http://www.houseoffusion.com/index.cfm?sidebar=lists&body=lists/cf_talk or send a message to [EMAIL PROTECTED] with 'unsubscribe' in the body. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Archives: http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/ To Unsubscribe visit http://www.houseoffusion.com/index.cfm?sidebar=lists&body=lists/cf_talk or send a message to [EMAIL PROTECTED] with 'unsubscribe' in the body. ____________________________________________________________________ Get free email and a permanent address at http://www.netaddress.com/?N=1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Archives: http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/ To Unsubscribe visit http://www.houseoffusion.com/index.cfm?sidebar=lists&body=lists/cf_talk or send a message to [EMAIL PROTECTED] with 'unsubscribe' in the body. _________________________________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com. Share information about yourself, create your own public profile at http://profiles.msn.com. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Archives: http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/ To Unsubscribe visit http://www.houseoffusion.com/index.cfm?sidebar=lists&body=lists/cf_talk or send a message to [EMAIL PROTECTED] with 'unsubscribe' in the body.
