Adam,

I will agree with you on every level, I have had a run in with Sean over
this before as many developers wonder all the time. And although I agree
that if something is not making money for the company a decision will be
made about its future.

Now back to the real world.

In Australia, the biggest problem is jobs. The jobs are just not there any
more for coldfusion developers, finding a good developer that is not already
in a job is getting harder and harder. And because of that, the trend is to
then switch to a product that will give a company / business what they
require.

At the end of the day we design, develop and have to support a product we
develop for a customer or client, if we can't meet those needs due to no
developers to do the job, then a decision has to made of what to do with the
application.

I had this discussion a few years ago with Sean, and he stated the same
thing then that CF is better and stronger than ever before, well if that is
the case how come the job market in Australia has dwindled to virtually
nothing.

But here is what will kill CF, the price tag. We all know CF is RAD, but
this has changed, since adding in Unit testing (TDD), and frameworks's like
mvc, spring etc. Every other technology has the same advantage as CF, but CF
is easy to learn but not when it comes to complex projects, and the likes of
java will win hands down for that.

How can I turn around and say to a client, I can do the same job but it is
going to cost $50k, not including the CF license and a java developer comes
along and says yep $50k and no license required as it is open source. And
the company is going to look at me and say well what about if I need
support, there are more java developers than CF developers so the decision
is easy, lets go the java route.

The reality is simple, CF has grown up and can compete with the bigger boys
but it can't with the price tag it has and it's loosing ground because of
it.

There are so many factors involved that this discussion can go on and on for
eternity, but CF will still be looked upon to the small developers and have
to compete with open source all the time.


Anyway that's my 2c, and observation on the subject.



Andrew Scott
Senior Coldfusion Developer
Aegeon Pty. Ltd.
www.aegeon.com.au
Phone: +613  8676 4223
Mobile: 0404 998 273

-----Original Message-----
From: Adam Churvis [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Friday, 1 December 2006 10:20 AM
To: CF-Talk
Subject: Re: Sean Corfield, it's time to approve my post

> If you go through this whole argument about how we can't divine the
actions
> of top management, why should we trust your divination?

Dave, I highly respect you, too, and I think everyone knows that.

Of course, my predictions are from someone just as removed from the Adobe
boardroom as the rest of you.  My point is that I believe that I'm looking
at this from a more realistic point of view, taking into consideration the
true nature of the decision points they, like any other business leaders,
must by federal law take into consideration.  How they consider them and
what they deduce is, of course, anyone's bet.

I will say that for a few years now I've been suspicious of the actual
revenue numbers generated by ColdFusion, how that revenue breaks down
between maintenance versus new licenses for new versions, new customer
growth trend, and how that trend's growth pattern compares to the overall
growth patterns of other platforms.  Saying that overall revenue has grown
can indicate any number of things; the devil's in the details.

My suspicions have made me think that things are not as rosy as we would
like them to be, hence the decidedly darker side of my predictions.

Again, I'm sorry if I've ruffled any feathers.

Back to work! :)

Respectfully,

Adam Phillip Churvis
Certified Advanced ColdFusion MX 7 Developer
BlueDragon Alliance Founding Committee



Get advanced intensive Master-level training in
C# & ASP.NET 2.0 for ColdFusion Developers at
ProductivityEnhancement.com




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