On 5/25/07, James Wolfe <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > No offense taken. I haven't bought a CF book in wow, nearly a decade
> > since none of them are truly good. Like I said, the problem is the
> > market is too small for a big publisher to take a risk. Breakeven on
> > a
> > book for an O'Reilly or Wiley is between 6000 and 8000 copies
> > depending on the size/price, and all the investment is upfront.
>
> This is a catch-22.
>
> Assuming you are correct (a large if), then the onus clearly falls on Adobe 
> to publish a quality reference book. If no one else can, and they decide not 
> to, then they choose actively to watch CF crumble and eventually fail.

Having written 3 books, been involved in reviewing them for 5
publishers, contributed to several more, and been through the proposal
process with O'Reilly a number of times and knowing a number of other
authors in the Java and database worlds, I can tell you with some
authority that 6-8 thousand books is the breakeven ballpark for
medium-sized tech books.

> Even if you are wrong and anyone could make money from a book, I don't know 
> why Adobe wouldn't publish one. I can't imagine that the cost of producing 
> and publishing a quality book would be more than a drop in the bucket next to 
> the development cost of Scorpio.

They have -- Ben's book. And they make a *ton* of money from it since
there's effectively no competition. Little incentive for them to
compete with themselves on a general book and little incentive to try
and write a higher-end book for a smaller market (eg higher end CF
developers). Java one gets 20-30k people; CFUnited gets something like
1500 (MAX is hard to count since it cuts across Flex, Flash, etc) so
assuming 10% of those folks buy a  given book it's easy to look at the
math.

If it was good business, they'd do it. That's all it is -- business.

-- 
John Paul Ashenfelter
CTO/Transitionpoint
(blog) http://www.ashenfelter.com
(email) [EMAIL PROTECTED]

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