I know that's a 'Chicken Little" kind of subject line.  I hope my
impressions are wrong.   Might be - i have been wrong before.  I
remember i was wrong once when i thought i was incorrect, but i wasnt.

Anyway,  these are the reasons i think the trends tell me ColdFusion
is either a dead duck of soon to be a dead duck at least in Sydney
anyway.  I dont know about other places.  ...

[A] there is almost no new development going on in ColdFusion    In
the last 12 months there has been just a handful of coldfusion jobs
advertised.   And most of those have been advertised by time-wasters
who didnt end up appointing anyone. "I'm sorry Mike, they've put that
project on hold for now ... yada yada yada "  (or so they said  maybe
they were just too gutless to tell me i didnt get the assignment)   In
the last 12 months i have had NOT ONE assignment as a result of any
advertisements for CF developers.   If I hadnt dug up business on my
own I'd have starved.   Contrast this with a few years ago when
freelancers like me had jobs lined up one behind the other.   Maybe
its just me,   maybe everyone else has lots of jobs lined up.  But
somehow i doubt it.

[B] There is next-to no apparent activity in the Usergroups on
coldfusion, at least as far as I've seen.  Everyone's fussing about
Flex and Flash and Railo and Ruby on Rails and no one's talking about
ColdFusion.    I'd have made the 4 hour trek into the user group
meeting if there'd been anything to do with coldfusion on.  Apparently
developers think there is nothing to talk about with ColdFusion.   How
newer developers are getting on learning the product I have no idea.

[C]  Adobe dont seem to be doing anything to promote ColdFusion here.
 I might be wrong on that,  and its just that they dont tell us what
they're doing,  but I havent seen any evidence that they're putting
much effort into marketing ColdFusion.     I dont consider sending
speakers to a COLDFUSION conference like WebDU or CfObjective to be
promoting new ColdFusion installations because they're preaching to
the choir there.   Those folks are already sold on CF.  Yes it's
important to keep those lines open with the developer community but I
dont see much use for gaining new users that way.   ( I said something
similar a few years ago, and Mark Blair got highly indignant about it
- called me and told me all the things he was doing to promote
ColdFusion.   But after that, nothing)   I would like to know that
Adobe care enough about their server product to put some money behind
it and promote it a bit here.    It would make me feel more
comfortable about building my business around it.


So if IT departments arent looking for CF Developers,   Usergroups
arent interested any more,  Adobe isnt bothered with it any more,
what long term future does it have?

Boy i hope I'm wrong!
-- 
Cheers
Mike Kear
Windsor, NSW, Australia
Adobe Certified Advanced ColdFusion Developer
AFP Webworks
http://afpwebworks.com
ColdFusion, PHP, ASP, ASP.NET hosting from AUD$15/month

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