[I have redirected this from general forum to chat forum, since that seems appropriate. Maybe I've got enough code here for the programming forum, but I couldn't resist the urge to also chat about it a bit.]
Or */34#0.99 (this approach becomes handy when some of the probabilities are different and also is a step on the way towards dealing with other kinds of combination of probability issues). That said, note: (1) for covid-19, the recent estimates on mortality rate were 0.7%. (2) If life expectancy of a population is 100 years and the size of the population is stable, that means 1% of the population dies every year (this is somewhat significant in today's context, since the age curve for covid-19 deaths approximately matches the age curve for deaths from all causes. To get a better sense of the actual impact of the disease we'll want to be checking the mortality totals for this year against the totals for previous years. But we probably won't have those for the usa for a couple years, given the current state of affairs. We know it's serious because of hospital crowding issues, and because some people have long term lingering after effects, but that 0.7% fatality number is only a part of the picture even when we are only focusing on the chance of death.) So, ... anyways, for even more fun: +//.@(*/)/ 34#,:(,-.)-.0.007 0.787543 0.188757 0.0219551 0.00165087 9.01909e_5 3.81472e_6 1.29975e_7 3.66494e_9 8.71946e_11 1.7757e_12 3.12938e_14 4.81311e_16 6.50311e_18 7.75799e_20 8.20331e_22 7.7104e_24 6.45445e_26 4.81761e_28 3.20743e_30 1.90402e_32 1.00666e_34 4.73085e_37 1.97065... 78.8% chance of no one dying (rounding to one digit after the percentage decimal place) 18.9% chance of one person dying 2.2% chance of two people dying 0.2% chance of three people dying etc. Take care, -- Raul On Thu, Oct 8, 2020 at 12:45 AM Devon McCormick <[email protected]> wrote: > > If 34 people have a disease which is fatal about 1% of the time, what is > the chance that no one in the group dies? > ) > 2020 10 7 23 42 40.156 > 0.99^34 > 0.710553 > 34^~-. 0.01 NB. Stating it another way > 0.710553 > > -- > > Devon McCormick, CFA > > Quantitative Consultant > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/forums.htm ---------------------------------------------------------------------- For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/forums.htm
