Much of the below is second hand or half-remembered, feel free to correct me, I 
have some URLs at the end. The strategy issues at the end might be interpreted 
as condoning illegal filesharing; my views on copyright are well known, 
filesharing is a legitimate technology, and there are legitimate privacy and 
censorship issues. Besides, we have already discussed this on IRC. And of 
course, IANAL!

Legislation will be introduced in the new year by the obama administration to 
(amongst other things) force peer to peer software developers to redesign their 
systems to allow intercept warrants to be serviced. I don't know what form 
warrants take i.e. whether they can require a pseudonymous identity to be 
traced or whether it is limited to intercepting comms between two known 
pseudonyms and whether that includes downloads etc. The Tea Party scum use the 
constitution in their rhetoric but are unlikely to stand against intercept 
powers to beat terrorists etc. It is highly unlikely that this will get past 
the Supreme Court, based on a previous judgement that crypto export 
restrictions violate freedom of speech (think about it), and there is no need 
to manufacture a test case; as soon as it passes a suit can be filed. At least 
twice a decade congress attempts such a monstrosity and it is generally 
repelled. Having said that, a good deal of legislation that is unconstitutional 
does actually pass, some of it is repealed by the courts and then immediately 
reinstated in a slightly different form. Extrajudicial sanctions against 
casually-provable filesharers are coming in Europe but would likely be 
unconstitutional in the US. There is law to block copyright infringing sites 
going through the process as well; extrajudicial blacklists would almost 
certainly be unconstitutional in the US, whether getting a low court to block 
it and forcing them to appeal would be is unclear. Takedown notices (implement 
or contest in court at your own expense) already exist for content hosted by 
ISPs, and many argue they are unconstitutional, but would be a cheap way to 
block sites, although the current proposed law just allows the attorney general 
to create an "optional" blacklist (and the courts to create a mandatory one).

In Europe, extrajudicial sanctions are common. They will be implemented some 
time soon here. Blocking of sites has been implemented here, although it may 
need secondary legislation. I don't know exactly how it works, it may require 
involvement of a low court. In some countries there are laws against developing 
p2p software, such as France. The ECHR is even slower than the US Supreme 
Court, and is generally weaker. IMHO we will see big problems in Europe first.

Meanwhile the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement will introduce blocking and 
probably filesharing sanctions and other things via international treaty. The 
movie industry body recently asked whether they could use it to block 
WikiLeaks! The DMCA, which is widely argued to be unconstitutional but remains 
in force, was also the product of an international treaty, and was emulated in 
europe.

However, there are two key positive areas to consider:

1. The state of the music industry. It still manufactures ridiculous numbers 
based on the assumption that everyone who downloads a track would have bought 
it. These numbers are likely based on assuming they would have bought them off 
iTunes, rather than the much cheaper option of getting a Spotify subscription 
(or listening to them for free but I imagine there are volume limits?). Anyway, 
arguably because of pressure from filesharing as much as anything else, you can 
get cheap all-you-can-eat deals, and because users don't like DRM, the music 
industry has largely given up on it.

2. Even if conventional filesharing is systematically persecuted, this will 
drive users to us - provided that we have a fast, easy to use, adequately 
secure, scalable offering. In the short term, this will likely be by tracing 
users of known illegal content and suing them or taking extrajudicial 
sanctions. This has already had a big effect on the number of French Freenet 
users. At which point Freenet would become the target, but it would be big 
enough to build a real darknet. Assuming freenet is adequately secure (whether 
this can be achieved on opennet is uncertain), there would have to be specific 
legislation (or unilateral action by ISPs), and either blunt blocking of all 
customer-to-customer connections (e.g. via abusing the RBL's), with substantial 
collateral damage, or traffic flow analysis and blocking of everything that 
looks like a peer to peer network (which would cost more and produce somewhat 
less collateral damage). Either way you'd likely snare various "legitimate" 
peer to peer networks although a licensing scheme might be set up; this would 
of course discourage innovation, but corporatist nonsense favouring big 
corporations and ultimately weakening competition and capitalism happens all 
the time (e.g. software patents). Either way you're on very shaky ground 
legally in the US, especially if it is mandatory. IMHO in countries where such 
horrible things happen there are still options for freenet-style connectivity, 
but they involve more work and higher latency (although not necessarily lower 
bandwidth). But it's interesting to note that AFAIK China hasn't done this yet, 
despite taking very strong measures against Tor. Probably because they see p2p 
as mainly an issue for copyright (which they don't care about) rather than 
anti-political-censorship (meaning freenet is too hard to get and too hard to 
use).

EFF on recent proposal:
http://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2010/09/government-seeks
NY Times story on recent proposal:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/27/us/27wiretap.html
Ninth Circuit: Crypto export controls unconstitutional
http://www.eff.org/press/archives/2008/04/21-29
MPAA: Can we use ACTA to block WikiLeaks?
http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100915/10324411026/mpaa-wants-to-know-if-acta-can-be-used-to-block-wikileaks.shtml
--- Begin Message ---
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/27/us/27wiretap.html?_r=1&src=ISMR_HP_LO_MST_FB

Its a proposal that would force all communication providers, including
software providers, to provide a back-door to enable wire-tapping.

I strongly suspect it will go the way of the failed "Clipper chip" of the
90s.  I also think that there is a strong first-amendment argument that
requiring that communication software include a back-door is an infringement
of the first-amendment rights of the software author.

In short, expect a major backlash.

That being said, if it does go through it will force us to move any
Freenet-related development out of the US, unless we want to make it a
test-case.  It may even mean that I need to give up my role as project
coordinator should I decide to remain in the United States.

Whatever happens, the one thing that will never be an option is compliance
with this law (even if Freenet's current developers went insane and agreed
to install a back-door, the project would be forked in a millisecond).

I expected better from Obama's administration.

Ian.

-- 
Ian Clarke
CEO, SenseArray
Email: i...@sensearray.com
Ph: +1 512 422 3588
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