*POST-PESACH CHODOSH BULLETIN #1*
* 12 May 08*
*From the Guide to Chodosh-Y. Herman*
*Chodosh telephone Hot Line 718-305-5133, email [EMAIL PROTECTED]
<mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]>**
* *
With pesach behind us we should be in the relaxed time of the year
regarding Chodosh, when everything is Yoshon until the new Chodosh
harvest comes in starting in July and August. However this year is
different. During this normally “off time”, we are focusing on potential
future problems.
I issued an alert Bulletin in March 08 informing the public that due to
a crisis in the world wheat markets there may not be any Yoshon flour
for the bakeries in the forthcoming season starting in Aug 08. This
current note is an update on this situation. The conclusions thus far
indicate that BE”H we should have at least a limited supply of Yoshon
bakery products in the forthcoming season. It is most probable that
bakeries that will bake Yoshon will have to change their baking
procedures to make Yoshon. How extensive will our choice be and how many
bakeries will choose to make Yoshon depends on outcome of the wheat
harvests that will take place over the next several months, as explained
in this report. _Please note that here we are addressing mainly the
production of Yoshon at bakeries and similar establishments that in the
past used stored Yoshon wheat or flour._
*THE “PROPHETS” OF THE COMMODITY MARKETS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON YOSHON*
* *
Wheat is a commodity whose price at any time is set by the Commodity
Markets. Traders on the commodity markets try to guess the world-wide
balance between supply and demand and set their bidding prices
accordingly. Late last year, the “prophets” of the wheat commodity
markets began publishing a new “revelation.” Namely, they came to the
conclusion that the demand for spring wheat will greatly exceed
available supply to the point that the current spring wheat supply (that
would be our Yoshon next season) will disappear much before the new
harvest comes in. This prophecy was based on them identifying the
convergence of several factors:
· Poor wheat production this past year in several countries
· Greatly increased standard of living in China and some other formerly
“underdeveloped” countries leading to an increase in the world-wide
demand for wheat
· The falling value of the dollar making it easier for these countries
to purchase wheat
· Increase in agricultural land being diverted from wheat production to
the growth of grains suitable for agri-fuel substitutes for petrolium.
As a result of such “revelations”, the price of wheat flour became
unstable in an unprecedented manner. A typical 100 pound bag of spring
wheat bakery flour has been selling normally for the
traditionally-stable price of about $20. In January the price zoomed up
to about $60 per bag. Meanwhile flour distributors had put away Yoshon
in August 07 and were holding it to deliver at $20. Some of these
distibutors could not resist the opportunity of great profit and sold
the Yoshon flour at the high new prices, voiding their Yoshon
commitments. The bakeries served by one distributor even had signed and
prepaid contracts on the Yoshon that he was holding. He nevertheless
renegged on those contracts. (We were gratified to learn that the
principle Jewish frum distributors of Yoshon in the New York area did
honor their Yoshon commitments, even without any formal contracts. We
owe them our gratitude.)
The great explosion in wheat prices, came just at the time when the
farmers in the spring planting areas were trying to decide which crops
would be the most profitable to plant. Due to these high wheat prices
they decided to devote significantly more land to grow spring wheat than
last year. When the US Dep’t of Agriculture released the revised
planting estimate for spring wheat, the “prophets” of the commodity
markets realized that there may be more spring wheat available than they
feared after all. As a result, by the end of April, the price of the bag
of flour that went from $20 to $60 was back down to $30, with an
adequate supply available to all who wanted it.
Now, what about Yoshon for next season? Will there be enough Yoshon
spring wheat to be able to store as usual, and for a reasonable price?
Nobody knows. The mills and distributors categorically refuse at this
time to consider such storage. It is too risky. The price can oscillate
up or down in unpredictable ways. If they will not put the Yoshon into
storage, then we will not be able to have Yoshon bakery products
produced in the usual manner.
What concern them is that the final price of the spring wheat will
depend on many upredictable factors that will not be known until the new
harvests are all in. These factors include
· The weather not only in the USA but in other growing areas for wheat,
the world over
· The quality and yield of the winter wheat crop
· The quality and yield of the spring wheat crop
· Price of the dollar
· General world economic situations (recession, etc)
*WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE THE YOSHON PRODUCERS AND CONSUMERS?*
* *
It is too early and the situation is too unstable to be sure. The
following time points may be significant
· End of May, when the winter wheat harvest begins. At that time we
should be able to get a better idea of the amount and the quality of the
winter wheat that will be available next season.
· Early to mid July when the spring wheat harvest begins. At that time
we should be able to get a better idea of the amount and the quality of
the US spring wheat that will be available next season.
· September or October (which is about 2 months after the start of the
new Chodosh season) when the world-wide wheat picture should be
clearified and the prices may stabilize.
Since the price is not likely to stabilize until some time after the
Chodosh season starts, we can not be sure whether the traditional Yoshon
storage methods will be available or not.
*WHAT OTHER YOSHON OPTIONS DO WE HAVE?*
* *
If Yoshon spring wheat bakery flour will not be available next season,
will the bakeries be able to continue to supply us with Yoshon? Is there
an other, thusfar largely unexplored way to produce Yoshon? Many of the
smaller bakeries have been resigned to producing no Yoshon next year,
since they were told by their flour suppliers in very certain terms that
they will not get Yoshon flour next season. However, BS”D the situation
is not as hopeless as they believe.
*_A possible solution: increase the protein of winter wheat flour.
_*Winter wheat is always Yoshon. Spring wheat is basically almost all
Chodosh once the new crop is harvested starting late July or early
August. The principal reason that spring wheat has been used by the
bakeries and companies for producing breads, rolls, chalehs, bagels,
pizza, some cakes (and noodles and pasta) is that the spring wheat has a
substantially higher _protein_ level than winter wheat (about 11-17%
protein for spring wheat, versus about 9-13% for the winter wheat.) The
extra protein makes the bread products chewy as opposed to the crumbly
consistency of sponge cakes and crackers made from winter wheat. In
theory, it is possible to increase the protein level of winter wheat
flour by adding to it concentrated protein that is a wheat flour
derivative called _vital wheat gluten_. This additive is available also
from pure winter wheat. The maximum amount of protein enhancement that
would produce workable results by mixing winter wheat flour with vital
wheat gluten is not well understood. However, it is clear that the
higher the starting protein level of the winter wheat, the better are
our chances of a successful product. We are encouraged by the following
early indications:
· An expert from a flour mill told us that his experiments show that it
should be possible to make good chalehs and rolls from protein-enhanced
winter wheat.
· A major wholesale bakery has done experiments that show that it is
possible to bake good rye bread by mixing the rye flour with such
enhanced winter wheat flour instead of the usual spring wheat flour.
· A second wholesale bakery has declared his intention to find ways to
continue to produce good Yoshon products from winter wheat if necessary.
· A wholesale producer of frozen bagel doughs has done limited
experiments with using such flour enhancement. He feels confident that
he can produce bagels from winter wheat only. However, such bagels may
not be as chewy or dense as the usual bagels.
· Most years, winter wheat is cheaper than spring wheat. If such
experiments, which are forced on the bakeries who wish to continue to
produce Yoshon are successful, then it may also turn out that it is
cheaper to produce such baked products on a regular basis just to save
money. In that case the feared misfortune of not having Yoshon for next
season may generate an ongoing solution for the future of producing
Yoshon that is cheaper than the usual Chodosh and does not call for the
use of stored flour or stored wheat.
* *
*WHAT IS THE FUTURE FOR YOSHON NEXT SEASON?*
Of course nobody knows what will happen to Yoshon next season for the
reasons we explained above. The concensus is that probably _Chodosh will
start several weeks earlier than in previous years_ due to the fact very
little stored crop is available. Therefore, the new crop will be used as
soon as the Chodosh harvest begins.
However, regarding the more general questions raised above, from all
possible outcomes we would like to outline 3 possible scenarios:
1. *_A “worst case” scenario_*: One possibility is that the new winter
wheat crop is very poor and the spring wheat crop is very good and
plentiful, thereby fairly inexpensive. In that case, most bakeries would
probably use Chodosh spring wheat to bake products of the usual high
quality for the majority of the kosher customers who are not /makpid /on
Chodosh. A few bakeries will continue to make Yoshon products that may
differ in quality or texture from the usual items that would now only be
available as Chodosh.
2. *_An intermediate scenario:_*_ _ Suppose both the winter wheat and
spring wheat are of good quality. Some bakeries would improvise new
techniques to produce Yoshon products that are the same in quality as
the items normally made from spring wheat. However, many bakeries would
still choose to produce only Chodosh from spring wheat, as usual. They
would be reluctant to invest the time and effort to learn the new baking
procedures needed to make good products from winter wheat flour.__
3. *_A “best” scenario: _*Perhaps a “best” outcome would be if the
winter wheat is of good quality and is plentiful, while the spring wheat
is significantly more expensive than winter wheat. In this case, the
bakeries would have a financial incentive to learn new production
methods, to allow them to use winter wheat to make good quality products
at a lower cost. _Those products would also be Yoshon_. I call this last
scenario “best”, because normally winter wheat is cheaper than spring
wheat. Once the bakeries are retrained to switch from spring wheat flour
to winter wheat (Yoshon) flour, then in the future we could have
unlimited Yoshon without the need to store large amounts of spring wheat
flour.*_ _*_ _
_ _
_ _
I hope to issue an update on this issue in early June when the winter
wheat harvest is on the way and in mid July when the spring wheat
harvest has started.
_ _
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