I've been long frustrated by the fact that any discussion of the attack on 
Coventry always revolves around Churchill's defenders having to explain that he 
did not in fact have advance knowledge of the raid. Why does the other side 
never have to explain themselves?

Let's say there had been advance knowledge of the raid and Coventry's defenses 
had been significantly strengthened. How exactly would that have alerted the 
Germans to the fact that their codes had been broken?

Assume the Germans had suffered heavy losses in the raid. Post-mission 
debriefing would have first focused on things like altitude, course heading and 
air speed. Variables which when changed can produce very different results over 
an identically defended target. The Germans might have concluded that the RAF's 
night fighter capability was much better than they thought. If they did 
conclude that the city's anti-aircraft defenses had been strengthened since the 
previous raid, it seems reasonable that they might have first thought that it 
was because there was something new in the city (industry, military command 
post?) worth defending.  Why believe the Germans would automatically assume 
that their codes had been compromised? 

The conspiracy theorists never have to explain themselves. They can just make 
charge after charge and watch the other side scramble to defend itself. Until 
they are forced to fight on their own ground the truth can never win.

Richard Overy has a new book on the Air War coming out next week. I look 
forward to reading what he has to say about Coventry.

Jason Wise

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