[cia-drugs] Commonwealth of Oil-Dependent States

[Vigilius Haufniensis]

http://www.kommersant.com/page.asp?idr=528&id=706391   Commonwealth of Oil-Dependent States // Even non-primary-producing CIS countries depend on oil and natural gas prices Analytic centers believe that mid-term economic growth in CIS countries will remain, but the long-term growth strongly depends on oil prices and reforms in certain countries. Apparently, economic growth in such countries as Russia, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan is dependent on exported raw material prices. However, the changes in raw material prices influences other CIS states as well, because their economies are closely intertwined. For instance, work migrants earn money in rapidly richening Russia and send it to their homes. Money transfers are economically important for such countries as Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldavia, and Tajikistan, according to IMF’s review of world economy. Ukraine’s, Georgia’s, and Belarus’ economies strongly depend on Russia’s oil and gas. Moscow now ties up political agreements on prices with the level of world prices on oil and gas. Thus, Belarus might lose from 2 or 3 percent to 9 or 10 percent of its GDP, depending on prices of energy resources from Russia. Georgia, who became the growth leader last year (9.3 percent of GDP growth), will keep it up this year as well. This is partially the result of liberal economic reforms and anti-corruption campaign. Yet, high growth rate in Georgia is also the consequence of fast economic recovery after decline. Georgia also has another important source for growth – foreign financial aid. Yet, the continuing debates between Moscow and Tbilisi might slow Georgia’s economic growth down to 5 or 6 percent in 2007. IMF thinks Ukraine might slow down as well, due to political instability. According to the estimations of ING bank, if Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan -- economic leaders of the CIS – join the WTO, their GDP growth rates will slow down by 0.2-0.5 percentage points in 2008, but will be accelerating by extra 0.5-1.0 percentage points beginning from 2009. www.kommersant.com __._,_.___ Complete archives at http://www.sitbot.net/ Please let us stay on topic and be civil. OM SPONSORED LINKS Independent broker dealer Independent director Central intelligence agency Central intelligence agency employment Your email settings: Individual Email|Traditional Change settings via the Web (Yahoo! ID required) Change settings via email: Switch delivery to Daily Digest | Switch to Fully Featured Visit Your Group | Yahoo! Groups Terms of Use | Unsubscribe __,_._,___