http://jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2372914
* CRACKDOWN IN TIBET WILL BOOST ROLE OF SCO*
By Erica Marat <http://jamestown.org/search.php?author=Erica+Marat>
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Although the international community has condemned Beijing's crackdown
against rioters in the Tibetan Autonomous Region, the Russian government
was among the first to show its active support for the Chinese
authorities. The riots began March 10, and the subsequent crackdown has
caused dozens of civilian deaths.
The Russian Foreign Ministry called the ongoing riots in Lhasa, the
Tibetan capital, illegal, restating its view of Tibet as "an inalienable
part of China." Moscow has also stated that an international boycott of
the Olympic games in Beijing this year would be unacceptable. There are
a multitude of reasons for the Russian government's support of China,
but at the top of the list are economic and military ties, a shared
perception of terrorism threats, and Russia's membership in the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO). Besides Russia, the SCO includes
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
While the international community is primarily concerned that their
future relations with China will be complicated by the violent
suppression of riots, their reaction to the Tibet situation will
inevitably affect China's neighbors and the SCO's internal dynamics. The
Tibetan Autonomous Region has emerged as a volatile zone in China where
the SCO might potentially play a role. Tibet, located between India and
the Xinjiang Autonomous Region, will likely shape the scenarios for
future SCO anti-terrorist exercises. The SCO's counter-secessionist
campaign has already subtly incorporated the region, but Tibet will now
likely have even greater importance for the organization. In suppressing
the recent riots in Tibet, Chinese authorities acted within the
organization's primary purpose; namely, fighting against the three evils
of "terrorism, separatism, and extremism."
Until recently China has been strengthening the SCO in order to secure
Russia's cooperation as well as that of the Central Asian states on its
western frontiers. The SCO's annual anti-terrorist exercises, "Peace
Mission," are designed to train a joint force to deal with security
threats arising on the territories of its member states. A scenario
dealing with a mass uprising similar to the one in Andijan, Uzbekistan,
in May 2005 was used in the SCO's August 2007 exercises at Russia's
Povolzhsk-Uralsk military district. With Tibet coming into the picture,
the range and scope of the SCO's joint exercises will expand yet again.
Both Russia and China have been major investors in "Peace Mission"
activities, while Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan
have sought to increase their participation every year. In 2006 Russia
and China conducted bilateral anti-terrorism exercises on China's
Shandong peninsula in full view of Taiwan.
While Moscow and Beijing share a common concern with secessionist
movements within their territories, other SCO members have followed
their lead on key policies. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, for example,
often mimic Russian foreign policy even when their interests are not
directly concerned. The Kyrgyz government, in particular, has been
loyally repeating Moscow's foreign policy statements. Similar to Russia,
the Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry sought to publicly state its condemnation of
Kosovar independence and still refuses to recognize Taiwan's autonomy.
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have their own rationales behind their
statements in support of the Chinese government. The Kazakh government
has backed Beijing's policies in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region
that seek to curb separatists movements by the local Turkic population.
For Uzbekistan the SCO and Russian-led Collective Security Treaty
Organization represent a multilateral shield against international
criticism of its domestic politics. Most analysts in EU governing bodies
compare the way the Andijan incident in 2005 was handled with the
Chinese government's bloody suppression of demonstrations in Tiananmen
Square in 1989. Shortly after the Andijan events, Uzbek President Islam
Karimov visited Moscow and Beijing, where he was assured of political
support. Finally, growing economic ties between the Central Asian states
and China have increased political cooperation between both regions as well.
Currently, the SCO's roster includes economically and internationally
weak Central Asian states, undermining the group's geopolitical
importance. However, the organization has limited options for expansion.
India's interest in the Central Asian region, as well as military
cooperation with Russia and China, has been increasing in the past few
years, making it a potential candidate for full SCO membership. But
Pakistan's interest in the organization complicates matters. The
possibility of Iranian membership in the SCO is also controversial. SCO
members are attracted by Iran's energy resources and Russia enjoys a
profitable arms trade with Tehran. But by admitting Iran the SCO would
risk involving the organization in the diplomatic difficulties
surrounding the country's nuclear program, along with its tension with
Israel. Turkmenistan and Afghanistan have the best prospects of joining
the SCO. Because the SCO's expansion in the short-term is improbable,
the organization is more likely to concentrate on its internal
consolidation.
China's ability to resist international criticism and successfully host
its Olympic games this year will send a message to SCO members about the
country's increasing economic and political influence in the West.
Similar to Russia, China is becoming an increasingly valued partner
among Central Asian leaders due to Beijing's handling of domestic and
international crises. In the coming months the SCO will gain even
greater importance and appreciation among its member states.
(BBC, Ferghana.ru, March 10-17)
