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Letter from Europe: Seeking rapprochement, if not a grand bargain By Judy Dempsey Thursday, November 1, 2007 BERLIN: The United States and Russia are engaged in brinkmanship at NATO headquarters in Brussels, where both sides are trying to salvage an arms treaty that is considered one of the cornerstones of European security since the end of the Cold War. But much more is at stake. The United States and its European allies, especially France and Germany, want to try to strike a grand bargain with President Vladimir Putin. Their hope is that if NATO allies make concessions over the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty, not only would Putin lift his threat to pull out of the accord on Dec. 12, but it could also be the start of a diplomatic rapprochement with Russia, helping to reach compromises over other big international disputes. One is Kosovo. Despite Russia's staunch opposition, the ethnic Albanians are intent on declaring unilateral independence next month if talks with Serbia fail. The second is Iran, where the United States needs Russia's full support for stopping the Islamic Republic from obtaining the capability to produce nuclear weapons. And finally there is the U.S. plan to deploy part of its antiballistic missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic, which Russia and indeed several West European countries believe is foolhardy. Security experts say that if NATO negotiators believe that by making concessions to Putin over the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty, the rest of the grand bargain will fall into place, they are naïve. "The linkages are spurious," said Christopher Langton, an arms control expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. "It is hard to imagine Putin selling Kosovo for a deal on the conventional arms treaty." The CFE treaty established a system for reducing conventional forces - tanks, armored combat vehicles, artillery and attack helicopters and combat aircraft - from Vancouver to Vladivostok. Countries signed up to on-site inspections and notifying each other of troop movements. There were restrictions over deploying forces on the "flanks" or border so as to prevent surprise attacks. Even though the Cold War is over, security experts that say the treaty, which took effect in 1992, is worth saving. "Without it, we would not be able to see what Belarus is doing or what Russia is doing," said Lieutenant Colonel Marcel de Haas from the Netherlands Institute of International Affairs. "It really is about confidence building." Putin has set conditions for Russia remaining in the treaty. He wants Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to join it and for all signatories to ratify amendments agreed in 1999. So far, only Russia and Belarus have done so. He also wants the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which negotiated the treaty and which includes most NATO countries, to give Russia more flexibility to move its troops and equipment to volatile areas along its southern borders. Diplomats involved in the negotiations say they are focusing just on reaching a compromise over the treaty. But they acknowledge that they have become caught up with Kosovo, Iran and missile defense. They say, too, that inside NATO, an East-West divide has opened up, with the East Europeans fearing they will be sold out for a grand settlement. Putin has warned the West that if Kosovo declares independence outside the UN Security Council, followed by recognition by the United States and EU countries, it could set a precedent for other trouble spots in the region. Separatists in South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia and in Transnistria in Moldova who look to Moscow for military and political support are seeking independence. Putin is in no hurry to throw away these cards. Then there is Iran and the U.S. missile defense plans for Eastern Europe. Back in NATO, negotiations are rekindling fears among some East European countries that the West is going to appease Putin at the expense of their security. "Even though they are in NATO, the East Europeans worry that Russia will use any compromise to carve out its own sphere of influence in the neighborhood, for example, Georgia and Moldova," said Tomas Valasek, a defense expert at the Center for European Reform in London. The United States has proposed that the Baltic states talk directly with Russia about joining the conventional forces treaty. It has also suggested that national parliaments start the ratification process. And, pressed by Germany, NATO would consider allowing Russian troops to remain in Abkhazia, but as part of an international peacekeeping mission. In parallel, Russia would start withdrawing its troops from Transnistria. "This is a major shift by the United States," said a Western diplomat involved in the negotiations, who requested anonymity. "Russia has not yet decided how to respond." Baltic diplomats are disheartened. "It is of course very important that we have this dialogue with Russia on the treaty," said Zygimantas Pavilionis, under secretary of state at the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry. "But with respect to the dialogue, it would be good if our American friends and the EU would pay a bit more attention to what is happening in Russia's neighborhood in the coming months. Global issues that dominate the agenda could be a distraction from real Russian interests in its neighborhood." Indeed, Russian interests in the neighborhood may provide the only real bargaining chips the West has. Putin feels encircled by NATO and the United States, particularly since 2004, when the Baltic states joined the alliance. "This is when these former Soviet republics were lost to Russia," de Haas said. Russia insists that they join the arms treaty so as to limit NATO maneuvers and troop buildups in the Baltics. In response to the U.S. antimissile shield, which has further hardened Russia's stance toward the arms treaty, Russia has threatened to deploy missiles in its exclave of Kaliningrad, which is sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland. Russia also opposes Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova joining NATO, fearing less influence in this region. The stakes are high for NATO. It wants to save the treaty, which gives the signatories guaranteed military access to Russian and other defense establishments across the former Soviet Union. Putin wants to save it, too, but only if his conditions are met by Dec. 12. With so little time left, the East Europeans may be cajoled into accepting the compromise. But if the United States, France and Germany believe that Russia will make major concessions over Kosovo and Iran, they should think again.
