http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2007/11/01/005.html
Thursday, November 1, 2007. Issue 3777. Page 8.
Pollution Is Not Cost-Free
By Joschka Fischer
Since the end of the Cold War all kinds of barriers have come down and the
world economy has fundamentally changed. By 1989, the global market encompassed
800 million to 1 billion people. Today, it is three times larger and growing.
Indeed, we are witnessing one of the most dramatic revolutions in modern
history, and it is occurring almost unnoticed. From a model that was once
applicable only to a minority of the world's population, "Western consumer
society" is becoming the dominant economic model of the world, one to which
there is increasingly no alternative. By mid-century, the lives of 7 billion
people might be governed by its laws.
The West has established the economic model of the 21st century, with its
hitherto unheard of standard of living, and almost all nations and regions are
trying to equal it, no matter what the cost. When, in the 1970s, the Club of
Rome, a global think tank, issued its famous report on the "Limits to Growth,"
the reaction was one of concern. Over the years, however, as the world economy
continued to grow without interruption -- and, in the current age of
globalization, seemingly without limits -- the dire predictions of the Club of
Rome have become increasingly an object of ridicule. And yet the Club of Rome's
basic insight -- that we live and work in a finite global ecosystem with
exhaustible resources and capacities -- has returned to challenge us again.
The world is not preoccupied today by the "limits to growth," but awareness of
the consequences of growth on the earth's climate and ecosystem is becoming
prevalent. China, for example, needs annual growth rates of 10 percent to keep
its huge economic, social and environmental problems under control. There would
be nothing sensational about this if China were a country like Luxembourg or
Singapore. But China has 1.3 billion people, so the consequences of its
economic growth are much more serious.
Global demand for energy, raw materials and food is increasingly influenced by
rising demand in China and India, whose combined population is 2.5 billion.
Other large and populous emerging countries in Asia and South America are
following in these giants' footsteps. Steadily rising prices of raw materials,
agricultural products and energy already reflect fears about future shortages.
These undesirable consequences of the expansion of world markets have assumed
alarming proportions within a relatively short period of time. China is on
course, this year or next, to overtake the United States as the world's largest
emitter of carbon dioxide, even though its per capita emissions are less than
one-fifth of the U.S. level. What will the world look like when China reduces
this difference to one-half? And India is following close behind China in its
level of carbon emissions.
Will the global ecosystem be able to absorb these additional pollutants without
considerable changes? Obviously not, as a large majority of climatologists are
now warning. These basic data have been known for a long time, and only a few
deny that rapidly accelerating man-made climate change is occurring. But one
might conclude from the bizarre debates we engage in about climate change that
what the world needs is a change in its political and psychological mood,
rather than a profound social and economic transformation. So, despite grand
rhetoric, very little is being done. Emerging countries continue to grow every
year. The United States has almost completely backed away from the global fight
against pollution, and, through uncontrolled growth, solidifies its position as
the world's leading polluter. The same pattern holds true for Europe and Japan,
albeit on a slightly smaller scale. In view of this global challenge, the Group
of Eight countries have made a heroic decision: The eight wealthiest industrial
countries -- which are also the largest polluters -- promised to "seriously
examine" cutting their emissions in half by 2050. This rhetorical heroism is
enough to leave the world speechless. Indeed, it remains to be seen if the
European Union will even be able to implement its promise to cut carbon dioxide
emissions by 20 to 30 percent by 2020. So far, the EU has not really come up
with any practical ways to do this.
But the solution to the challenge of global climate change is as plain as day.
The only chance of improvement is to decouple economic growth from energy
consumption and emissions. This must happen in the emerging countries and even
more urgently in the old industrial economies.
Such decoupling can occur only if we do away with the illusion that pollution
is cost-free. We can no longer get away with subsidizing economic growth and
standards of living at the expense of the global environment. Human population
has simply become too large to be able to afford it.
Doing away with this illusion requires the creation of a global emissions
market -- still a very distant goal. It also requires more energy efficiency,
which means a reduction of waste in both energy production and consumption.
Rising energy prices already point in this direction, but this knowledge has
yet to register. Finally, it requires technological, political and economic
breakthroughs in favor of renewable energy, rather than a return to nuclear
power or coal. In essence, then, we are confronted by a three-pronged challenge
of a new "green" industrial revolution. Coping with this global challenge also
offers an enormous opportunity for future prosperity and social justice that we
must seize.
Of course, there will be many powerful losers as we make these changes. They
are not about to accept their "disempowerment" without a struggle. At the
moment, they still seem to have the upper hand, as evidenced by much talk and
no action. This is precisely what needs to change.
Joschka Fischer, Germany's foreign minister and vice chancellor from 1998 to
2005, led Germany's Green Party for nearly 20 years. This comment appears ©
Project Syndicate.
