All,
I woke up this morning with the null hypothesis that there would be no
rare birds in Gregory Canyon. But, I decided to test this hypothesis.
Unfortunately, the evidence I gathered supported it, as I didn't see
anything rare. However, the hypothesis might still be wrong because I
could have missed the Swainson's Warbler skulking in the undergrowth.
The same hypothesis seemed to be correct in both Bear Canyon and the
South Mesa Trailhead, and I didn't go to the Doudy Draw trailhead !!
In my area of science (Meteorology and Mathematics) the null hypothesis
is always taken as the most likely outcome. Rare birds by definition
only show up rarely, so the null hypothesis should be that one isn't
at Gregory Canyon. To say that an outcome (Sparrow is an escapee) has
a 90% probability of being correct, but is then not taken as the null
hypothesis would be considered illogical, and a poor scientific method.
Now is the time of year when the null hypothesis of no rare birds is
most likely to be wrong, so many of us are out there looking. I will
be looking for the Sparrow in Georgetown tomorrow on my way over to
Grand Junction. There I will be searching hard for the Black-throated
Vireo mentioned in a recent post on CoBirds. I hope to see you there,
Drying out in my office once again,
Cheers, Peter Gent.
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