Thanks, Bryan!
On Tuesday, April 14, 2020 at 4:41:11 PM UTC-6, Bryan Guarente wrote:
>
> Let's start this post off with two quotes:
>
> - "Go Birding in Bad Weather." -- *Bill Schmoker ("Good Birders Don't
> Wear White")*
> - "*Thursday, April 16th*: Snow. High near 33. Northeast wind 7 to 11
> mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%" --
> *National
> Weather Service Boulder*
>
> Thanks to Bill and the NWS for making this post possible/easier. Bad
> weather is coming on Thursday... so expect some good birds. Let's look
> more carefully though to be clear.
>
>
> https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/16/0600Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.,40,1600/loc=-105.000,40.000
>
> That link has a green circle centered on Boulder, Colorado just for
> reference. So what do we see on this wind map? Winds (in greens and
> yellows) that are coming from the south in the Rio Grande valley into
> southeastern CO then curving into the mountains where they abruptly slow
> down or stop. If you were a northward-migrating bird, you might want to
> jump onto this train since it is the best show in town (by that I mean the
> only southerly winds [blowing FROM the south]) in all of the US. This map
> is for Wednesday night/Thursday morning at 12 am. It is also the winds
> right near ground level here in CO, but about 1km off the ground in Texas.
>
> This pattern looks great for bird migration. It also looks great for
> precipitation in the eastern half of CO, more in the north than in the
> south. With precipitation comes clouds, and in this case lower clouds.
> Due to the timing of these winds, it might be good to get out overnight to
> listen for low-altitude migrant overflights. They love to chip, chirp,
> tseep, and zeep when flying at night, and with low clouds that they won't
> love to fly through (a dry flight is a safer flight), they will likely be
> going below cloud base where we get a chance to hear them.
>
> Here is the tricky part though...
> https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/16/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.,40,1600/loc=-105.000,40.000
>
> Six hours later, it doesn't look like the pattern is as conducive for
> birds dropping into CO as much as it looks good for NE/KS/MO/IA, especially
> near the nexus of all those borders. Birds riding that south wind won't
> end up in CO before the winds are no-longer advantageous for their
> northward movement.
>
> So with a grain of salt, we can take Bill Schmoker's advice and go locally
> birding on Thursday. There should be some movement of birds, but maybe not
> as much as we would "want" during bad weather to prove Bill's thesis. I
> can say with confidence there will be plenty of movement on Thursday and
> some people will get new birds for their year lists or yard lists if you
> are lucky. Expect some new influx on Thursday.
>
> If the precipitation and temperatures aren't exciting for you, just wait
> for the reports to come in on Thursday, then go out locally on Friday to
> hunt those down. They should still be around... check out the winds for 6
> am Friday...
> https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/17/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.,40,1600/loc=-105.000,40.000.
>
> It doesn't look like much will want to leave our area with strong north
> winds (wind FROM the north; not good for northward migration).
>
> Go prove me right or wrong. All data points are good data points.
>
> May the winds be at the birds' backs, until they get to you. Best of luck,
> Bryan
>
> Bryan Guarente
> Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
> UCAR/The COMET Program
> Boulder, CO
>
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