6/3/99 11:07:29 PM Foreign Guerrillas Allegedly Among ELN Ranks June 3, 1999 Summary Colombian television reported there are at least 50 foreigners providing military advice to the Colombian rebels that kidnapped more than 100 people in March of this year. Foreign assistance to Latin American guerrillas withered in the early 1990s, with the fall of communism and the end of the Cold War. While this latest report could mark little more than a few old leftists freelancing with the ELN, the possibility of organized foreign influence aimed at destabilizing Colombia is intriguing. Analysis Foreign military advisors are reportedly providing unspecified assistance to the Ejercito de Liberacion Nacional (ELN). According to Colombian television reports, there are at least 50 foreigners among the ranks of ELN guerrillas. Colombian television reported that at least one of the foreigners is Chilean, but the nationality of the other foreigners is unknown, along with precisely what assistance the foreigners are providing to the ELN, and why. Some or perhaps all of the foreigners are working with the Jose Maria Becerra front, which is the front responsible for kidnapping more than 100 civilians in March. During the height of the Cold War, it was not uncommon for foreigners to advise Latin American guerrillas. Cuba was a prominent sponsor of Marxist revolutions throughout Central and South America. Colombian General Jaime Ernesto Canal recently referenced this phenomenon when he told reporters, "All subversive groups have received training from foreigners. As you know, and history has shown, we have sometimes found guerrillas from other countries who are members of the different groups of narco- terrorists in the country." However, with the end of the Cold War, support dried up along with monetary assistance as Cuba struggled to pay its bills, and Cuba's patron, the Soviet Union, disintegrated. Colombian guerrillas turned to other sources of income in the early 1990s, using kidnapping, extortion, and trafficking in narcotics to fill their coffers. The ELN is renowned for kidnapping wealthy foreign businessmen, and extorting funds from foreign companies - - oil companies in particular -- to raise money. There are several reasons that foreign radicals would be interested in working with Colombian guerrillas. At one level it may be that former guerrillas from the region's now-defunct rebel armies migrated to Colombia to find a new "cause." Other countries in Latin America have quelled their rebellions, which probably left many guerrillas without steady work. Most guerrillas are uneducated and come from the lowest income brackets, making reintegration into their own society difficult at best. It is not unreasonable to believe that some former rebels might have become mercenaries. Additionally, for moribund guerrilla armies interested in revival, the ELN could provide a good source of training. At the other end of the spectrum is the possibility that the foreigners are not merely out of work guerrillas, and that these "military advisors" are part of a coordinated foreign attempt to destabilize or at least manipulate Colombia. Other than at least one Chilean national, there is little indication of the nationality of the foreigners working with the ELN. The national origin of the foreign "advisors" could say a great deal about the possible motives behind their presence in Colombia. There have also been reports over the past few years that Colombia's larger FARC rebel army has received surface to air missiles and training from the Japanese Red Army, pilot training from Libya, and contacts with both the Iranian backed Hezbollah and Egyptian terrorists connected to Osama bin Laden. However, similar reports regarding ELN global ties have not been forthcoming. ELN's Cuban connection is known, and Castro has been trying to boost relations with both Bogota and Caracas by offering to mediate talks with the rebels, so perhaps Havana is making something worth mediating. The ELN has been linked to narcotics traffickers, though to a lesser degree than its larger counterpart the FARC. So the ELN could be receiving support to keep the drug routes open. However, the FARC already has been granted indefinite control of a large demilitarized zone, and traffickers would be better served attempting to exploit that gain than stirring up trouble in ELN territory. In fact, the nature of the ELN's tactics and the territory they occupy suggest that outside support could be more economically than politically or criminally motivated. The ELN is infamous for its attacks on Colombia's oil infrastructure, and is responsible for millions of dollars in damages each year. It operates in Colombian territory rich in oil and mines. It is possible that foreign interests, by aiding the ELN, could be attempting to impact specific industries in Colombia, rather than attempting to undermine the Colombian government. The key point weighing against this is that the last two major ELN attacks -- the Cali church raid and an airline hijacking -- have been simple hostage grabs, rather than economic strikes. As details emerge regarding the identities of the foreign nationals allegedly fighting alongside the ELN, these options will be pared down and their motives will become more clear. REF XQQAS XQQIE XQQGI Article supplied by STRATFOR Systems, Inc STRATFOR Systems, Inc's Global Intelligence Update (GIU) provides real time intelligence reports daily, with quarterly summaries of events relevant to a particular business or region. It is also available via a free e-mail service by registration at the Stratfor site. ------------------------------------------ Juan Pablo Ordonez Arq. http://members.tripod.com/~jpoq ICQ UIN:2281825 mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] ------------------------------------------
