potiuk opened a new pull request, #73316:
URL: https://github.com/apache/airflow/pull/73316

   The `Deps *:constraints` jobs re-resolve every provider that a release wave 
has just published, so they double for a few days after each wave and fall back 
once the constraints catch up. On `main`, `Deps 3.11:constraints` went 7m05s 
(09-13) → 20m57s (09-15) → back toward baseline, with nothing in the repository 
changing — and the same shape appeared around 09-04 → 09-07 → 09-09.
   
   A +25% threshold against a median baseline fires on every one of those. 
Raising the threshold would not help: the spikes are +100% to +200%, so any 
threshold large enough to absorb them would also absorb a real regression.
   
   The image build already had this problem and solved it by requiring the 
elevation to *persist* — a one-off cache miss never alerts. This applies the 
same rule to jobs matching `SPIKY_JOB_NAME_PATTERNS`, extracting that logic 
into `detect_persistent_regression` so both callers share it. A rise that 
outlasts `SPIKY_JOB_PERSISTENCE_DAYS` (default 3, env-tunable, 0 disables) is 
still reported.
   
   Tests use the real 09-08…09-16 durations: the wave shape is not flagged, the 
same wave that never comes back down is.
   
   ---
   
   ##### Was generative AI tooling used to co-author this PR?
   
   - [X] Yes — Claude Code (Opus 5)
   
   Generated-by: Claude Code (Opus 5) following [the 
guidelines](https://github.com/apache/airflow/blob/main/contributing-docs/05_pull_requests.rst#gen-ai-assisted-contributions)
   


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