On Tue, 7 Nov 2006, Peter Drake wrote:
Consider this position:
...wBw...
.w.wBwwww
...wBBBBB
wwwwB....
BBBBBBBBB
wwwwBwwww
w..wBw...
w..wBw.w.
w.wwBw...
Orego (now using UCT) quickly finds the correct answer, but the estimates of
the probability of winning are strange. Here's a graph:
The probability of winning by starting at b2 is greater than the probability
starting elsewhere, but shouldn't it approach 1.0, since b2 is a winning
move? Do others get this same behavior? Does anyone have an explanation?
b2 only wins if B plays a proper follow up move. Ie. after B(b2), W(b3)
Black has to play c2 otherwise White lives at c2.
For what it's worth, here are the probabilities and <black wins> / <total
runs> through each move:
...
Black can win by playing any (including H1) if White fails to protect
at c2 and allows to Black to play there in the next move.
Christoph
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