Chrilly,
The purpose of investment is to generate a return exceeding the original
investment, i.e. a profit. Given the state of Go, I am finding it
difficult to imagine why an investor would choose to put any good money
into Go. There is absolutely no reliable expectation that Go will
achieve even close to strong amateur status (1D) in the next couple of
years. It's possible some wealthy person might decide to generously
donate money into the computer Go domain so as to forward his own
passion, just as many of the people here generously donate their own
very valuable personal time. Go is not a reasonable place to put
investments. At present and from everything I can see, computer Go
development depends upon personal passion and generosity. And sans a
huge breakthrough, I am currently unable to see this changing anytime soon.
That said, I think once Go AI becomes sufficiently and robustly skilled
to reliably start giving strong amateurs (>1D) genuinely competitive
games, you will start to see investment rise. And given a sufficiently
high enough rate of change (objectively measured as increases in playing
skill), you will start to see the investments accelerate as competition
will spur on more innovation resulting in more successes resulting in
more investment resulting in further innovation...and a positive
feedback loop will be boot strapped. As the probability of producing
profits rise, the risk around insufficient returns on an investment
fall. Eventually a threshold is crossed and the system becomes
self-generative.
Succinctly put - there is no money in computer Go (at least compared to
computer Chess) because there is currently no hope (mathematically
speaking) of the existing crop of computer Go programs to scale up to
anything less than moderate amateur levels. Once this changes from no
hope to a remote possibility, the investment around Go will likely follow.
No to be too "Zen" here, but...the sooner you accept things as they are
and stop resisting "what is", the sooner you become free to move
forward. Go investment is working exactly as it ought, in relation to
the "whole".
Finally, thank you for your contribution to computer Go. I get that it
is an act of generosity (realistically, what else could it possibly
be). And I personally appreciate it.
Jim
chrilly wrote:
Sil wrote:
How about http://home.wwgo.jp/jp/minigo/
It seems that only 24 games are available. Is the whole collection
available somewhere?
Rémi
I have read dozens of times that computer-Go is the next big challenge.
But in fact it is a completly amateuristic field where even the most
basic things are missing. As a chess programmer I did not even think
about, that it is a problem to get a good game collection. There are
no proper interfaces, no serious tournaments, a wired data standard...
AND there is no money involved: For professional programming I get
60Euro/h (1Euro=1.35$).
2.000h x 60 = 120.000 Euro.
This equation is of course completly wrong. One can not make in 2000h
a very strong Go programm and one can not earn 120.000 Euro with it.
A more realistic equation is;
20.000 Euro/5000h = 4Euro/h.
The minimum wage (by law) is in Austria 6Euro/h. Obviously Go
programming is even more unqualified than washing dishes in a restaurant.
If it would be really a big challenge, there would be some money. In
chess nowadays there is also no money. But once it was a good business
and there was some considerable money for Deep Blue and on a smaller
scale also for Hydra, there was Don's project at MIT, one got a big
Cray for Cray-Blitz, Ken Thompson build a chess engine....
Its like some hobbyst engineers and hobby-pilots would try to fly to
the moon.
Its probably only good for to write some academic papers. In this case
its even an advantage that everything is so amateuristic. The general
level is low and one can be the one-eyed king under blind ones.
Its clear to me that things are as they are in the West. Go is played
only by a small freak community. But if it is so important in
China/Korea/Japan why is'nt there something like Fritz and ChessBase?
Or does it exist and we are living in a completly other Go-world?
Chrilly
P.S.: I do not want to offend anyone in this list. Everybody here does
his best. I am just feed up with the things as they are.
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