On 16-jan-08, at 17:22, <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

We can use math to shed some light on the topic:

* Assume that doubling the speed of a machine
  increases the rank of a program by 100 ELO,
  as Don has previously concluded.

* Then we have the following table of approximate
  costs, which comes from the equation y = 100 * 2^x
  cost -> lost ELO
  ----------------
   1%  ->  1.5 ELO
   2%  ->  3.0 ELO
   3%  ->  4.5 ELO
   4%  ->  6.0 ELO
   5%  ->  7.5 ELO
   6%  ->  9.0 ELO
  10%  -> 15.0 ELO

* In my program (which implements undo), the cost of
  for suicide detection is around 1%, which means it
  would lose 1.5 ELO points.

* If I wanted to know whether it was worth it, I would
  want to measure the ELO benefit by making better
  decisions concerning suicide. It is a small but
  real amount, probably at least 1 ELO (using my
  finger in the breeze).

* Thus the issue of whether you detect suicide may
  be a complete wash.

* On the other hand detecting superko costs more like
  6% or so, which costs 9 or more ELO. So a benefit
  of 1 ELO for doing superko right may not be worth
  the cost.

Conclusions

* The effect of suicide detection is *very* small in
  the scheme of things, and is probably not worth
  arguing over. Superko is also small, but might be
  worth a tiny amount of effort.

* Some kind of study to measuring the ELO cost of bad
  suicide and ko decisions would be useful.

* I plan to detect both suicide and superko on principle,
  confident that it doesn't make much difference.

Michael Wing


I have a few question-marks here.

First, did Don really say that a doubling of the speed gains 100 ELO? Or did he say adding a ply would add 100 ELO? There's a big difference.

Secondly, you say the ELO benefit for not playing suicide is 1. Admittedly you say you used your wet finger in the breeze. Thinking more about it I'd say Don is right, not playing suicide should be a considerable gain. I'd say that (putting my wet finger up) a random player that doesn't play suicide beats a random player that does 2:1. What's that in ELO? 100 points? Should be easy to verify.

Mark


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