By the way, does anybody know of any nifty tools or heuristics for
efficient probabilistic multi-parameter optimization? In other words,
like multi-dimensional optimization, except instead of your function
returning a deterministic value, it returns the result of a Bernoulli
trial, and the heuristic uses those trial results to converge as
rapidly as possible to parameter values that roughly maximize the
success probability.

I recommend evolutionary algorithms because they are robust on noise and don't require a quadratic or linear model for the function they optimize. I would go as simple as a ES(1+1) algorithm (a glorified name for a simple hill climber that probes randomly for its next step). I would also use restarts: run it once until no more improvement is apparent, then run it again and again (restarts) a few times (5-10) and take the overall optimum found. You'd be surprised how far you can get with this method!

Adrian

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