Christoph Birk wrote:
> On Sun, 2 Mar 2008, Don Dailey wrote:
>> My feeling is that in lost positions,  the only thing we are trying to
>> accomplish is to make the moves more cosmetically appealing (normal) and
>> at best improve the programs chances of winning against weak players.
>> After all, if the program is in bad shape,   then to be completely
>> realistic it's probably going to lose to the player that put it in this
>> bad shape.
>
> I think you are wrong here.
> If there are two lines of play from the viewpoint of the MC program:
>  a) leads to a 0.5 pt loss
>  b) may win if the opponent makes a stupid (!) mistake, but otherwise
>     leads to a bigger loss.
>
> It is generally better to play for the 0.5 point loss as the oppoenent
> may make a end-game mistake and loses 1 point.
> But naive MC programs typically go for (b) which will lead to a
> devastating loss because the opponent usually does not make the 10 point
> mistake, but may have made the 1 point mistake.
I just want this to be seen for what it is,  it's not a serious program
improvement even if you can make it work.

What you are trying to do is more in the category of opponent
modeling.    You want to optimize for the case that you might
occasionally salvage a game against an opponent that is much weaker than
you but is beating you anyway.    That's not a bad thing,  but it will
not make any serious difference in the strength of your program.   

If the opponent is beating you, he is probably relatively near your
strength level.  If your program KNOWS it is losing by 0.5 points,  then
it's reasonable to expect that your opponent does too, especially given
the fact that he just outplayed you.

So what you are trying to do is at best a very minor tweak.   I would
rather spend time making my program develop winning positions instead of
trying to occasionally salvage a lost game with a swindle.

Even in the case where your opponent hasn't figured it out yet (let's
say this game is headed for an upset and your program really is much
stronger)  your window of opportunity is pretty small.   If your program
is sure of the loss,  a few more moves will make it obvious even to a
seriously inferior opponent  (especially a MC based program.)

So at best you hope your opponent will make a stupid mistake in an
obviously lost position for you.

There is nothing wrong with this,  if it's what you want to lose sleep
over,  but how much do you expect to gain from it?     I see people
getting excited about this idea as if it's the holy grail of computer go
and will add 50 ELO or more.

If you want it as a cosmetic improvement,  it's worth trying to make
work.   I think if you were marketing your programs commercially you
would want to fix the MC type of behavior just because people generally
don't understand it and it could give your program an undeserved bad
reputation. 

- Don


>
> Christoph
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>
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