Don, thanks for providing these statistics! Overall it suggests that on CGOS White only has a small advantage. I still don't like this, but it is not nearly as bad as I initially suspected.
The initially decreasing percentages are somewhat puzzling. One might speculate that up to a certain level Black's strategy to dominate the center is easier, and White needs significant resources to learn how to build two sufficiently large living groups. My guess is that for 5-minute CGOS games the average level of play is still weak enough to keep White's advantage relatively close to 50%. I'm not sure how many programs actually play at peak strength on CGOS, but in the future we may expect to see an increasing group suffering from the large komi. Maybe it would be interesting to compare recent games to older games to see if there is a trend in the top group? Erik On Thu, Oct 9, 2008 at 6:08 AM, Don Dailey <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Ok, I'm doing the komi study. I hope this data formats properly on > your email clients. > > I am not including the first day or two of games because I remember > that I started out with 6.5 komi but I think that only lasted a few > hours. > > I'm including ALL games unless they ended with an illegal move. > > I'm using bayeselo ratings. So each bot has only 1 rating over it's > entire lifetime of games. > > I do not include games where either player played less than 20 games. > 20 games does not give a very accurate rating, but I had to draw the > line somewhere. However it's probably within 100 ELO of being > correct. > > I require opponents to be within 100 ELO of each other. I ran this > many times using different minimum ELO values. > > The data seems to indicate that white's winning percentage at 7.5 komi > DECREASES with the strength of the players in general. > > HOWEVER, the 2500 ELO entry is intriguing. It shows a sudden jump > with a sample of 3400 games. Does anyone have an explanation for > that? Is this just sample error? Or are the programs finally strong > enough to start seeing that white wins at 7.5 komi? > > Another interesting fact is that whites win percentage drops below 50% > with some of these entries (stronger players.) > > > DIFF MIN ELO WHITE TOTAL PERCENT > ----- ------- ------- ------- ------- > 100 0 74513 141579 52.630 > 100 100 74513 141579 52.630 > 100 200 74511 141577 52.629 > 100 300 74191 141054 52.598 > 100 400 73723 140308 52.544 > 100 500 73524 140009 52.514 > 100 600 73427 139874 52.495 > 100 700 72763 138921 52.377 > 100 800 72335 138212 52.336 > 100 900 71227 136490 52.185 > 100 1000 71192 136432 52.181 > 100 1100 71084 136231 52.179 > 100 1200 68862 132356 52.028 > 100 1300 67765 130428 51.956 > 100 1400 66562 128193 51.923 > 100 1500 64143 123672 51.865 > 100 1600 56458 108767 51.907 > 100 1700 53943 103828 51.954 > 100 1800 40790 78999 51.634 > 100 1900 18403 36247 50.771 > 100 2000 16859 33340 50.567 > 100 2100 13793 27399 50.341 > 100 2200 8986 18072 49.723 > 100 2300 8555 17266 49.548 > 100 2400 7686 15569 49.367 > 100 2500 1801 3400 52.971 > 100 2600 12 28 42.857 > > When I use a window of 200 ELO the data looks very similar. > > Here is the data when I require the difference to be 50 ELO or less: > > DIFF MIN ELO WHITE TOTAL PERCENT > ----- ------- ------- ------- ------- > 50 0 46184 87556 52.748 > 50 100 46184 87556 52.748 > 50 200 46183 87555 52.747 > 50 300 46031 87326 52.712 > 50 400 45890 87100 52.687 > 50 500 45815 86996 52.663 > 50 600 45813 86993 52.663 > 50 700 45376 86377 52.533 > 50 800 45108 85932 52.493 > 50 900 44050 84302 52.253 > 50 1000 44032 84277 52.247 > 50 1100 43969 84163 52.243 > 50 1200 42840 82193 52.121 > 50 1300 42361 81354 52.070 > 50 1400 41503 79735 52.051 > 50 1500 41003 78853 51.999 > 50 1600 37959 72933 52.046 > 50 1700 36280 69569 52.150 > 50 1800 28478 54845 51.925 > 50 1900 8535 16668 51.206 > 50 2000 7896 15433 51.163 > 50 2100 6823 13349 51.112 > 50 2200 4145 8120 51.047 > 50 2300 3917 7704 50.844 > 50 2400 3627 7166 50.614 > 50 2500 1497 2871 52.142 > 50 2600 12 28 42.857 > > > > _______________________________________________ > computer-go mailing list > [email protected] > http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/ > _______________________________________________ computer-go mailing list [email protected] http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/
