If you change the number of simulation to 10,000 instead of 100,000 of course you get more variety. After only 200 runs I get 5 moves:
200 runs of 10,000 playouts from opening at 0.5 komi mv: C5 count: 3 percent: 1.5000 mv: D4 count: 27 percent: 13.5000 mv: D5 count: 96 percent: 48.0000 mv: E5 count: 71 percent: 35.5000 mv: C4 count: 3 percent: 1.5000 I'm trying it at 1,000 nodes and get these moves in these proportions sorted in 349 runs: mv: D5 count: 97 percent: 27.7937 mv: D4 count: 80 percent: 22.9226 mv: C4 count: 53 percent: 15.1862 mv: C5 count: 48 percent: 13.7536 mv: E5 count: 38 percent: 10.8883 mv: B5 count: 10 percent: 2.8653 mv: B4 count: 9 percent: 2.5788 mv: C3 count: 8 percent: 2.2923 mv: B3 count: 5 percent: 1.4327 mv: B2 count: 1 percent: 0.2865 E5 is not even considered best (probably because there are 4 chances to get D5 for every 1 chance to get E5) but with 100,000 E5 is chosen almost 90% of the time. - Don On Thu, 2008-10-16 at 08:47 -0400, Michael Williams wrote: > What if you use a faster, lower quality RNG? How much do the numbers change? > > Don Dailey wrote: > > Update: > > > > 4173 runs of 100,000 playouts from opening at 0.5 komi > > > > mv: D4 count: 3 percent: 0.0719 > > mv: D5 count: 447 percent: 10.7117 > > mv: E5 count: 3723 percent: 89.2164 > > > > > > 0.959 percent fall outside the following range ... > > > > score: lo, med, hi -> 0.52031 0.52433 0.52835 > > nodes: lo, med, hi -> 11092602.0 11105554.0 11119436.0 > > > > > > > > > > On Thu, 2008-10-16 at 00:14 -0400, Don Dailey wrote: > >> I have some interesting statistics on the simple go program at 0.5 komi > >> from the starting position. > >> > >> I'm running numerous 100,000 game samples and tracking the statistics to > >> see what kinds of variation I get in scores and nodes. > >> > >> After 1748 runs I see that less than 1 percent of the games score lower > >> than 0.52027 or higher than 0.52823 when doing 100,000 game playouts. > >> > >> So if you get scores outside this range you probably do not have a > >> conforming program as this is expected to happen less than 1% of the > >> time. > >> > >> But what I really found interested is that only 3 moves (when accounting > >> for transformations) were chosen from the opening position. E5 was > >> chosen 85% of the time, and most of the remaining time D5 or > >> equivalent. Only 1 time was some other move chosen other than these > >> two and it was D4. > >> > >> I wonder how long before it would chose A1? Probably a very long time > >> indeed! > >> > >> So if your bot chooses a move other than E5 or D5, there is a very good > >> chance it is not conforming to our specification of a generic MC player. > >> > >> --- > >> > >> > >> 1748 runs > >> > >> mv: D4 count: 1 percent: 0.0572 > >> mv: D5 count: 200 percent: 11.4416 > >> mv: E5 count: 1547 percent: 88.5011 > >> > >> > >> 0.915 percent fall outside the following range ... > >> > >> score: lo, med, hi -> 0.52027 0.52434 0.52823 > >> nodes: lo, med, hi -> 11093084.0 11105628.5 11119815.0 > >> > >> > >> _______________________________________________ > >> computer-go mailing list > >> [email protected] > >> http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/ > >> > >> ------------------------------------------------------------------------ > >> > >> _______________________________________________ > >> computer-go mailing list > >> [email protected] > >> http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/ > > _______________________________________________ > computer-go mailing list > [email protected] > http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/
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