Self-play series are a standard technique in the 
testing of game programs. X plays against itself 
with different resources (search depth d vs. d+1, 
or thinking time t vs. 2t, or n vs. 2n processors). 
Often, testers have observed “rather constant” winning 
quota for large parameter ranges. Also often, diminishing 
returns are found at the upper end: The side with larger 
resources is no longer able to keep the winning quota on 
the previous high level.

I found something new: At (very) small resources the winning 
quota may also be closer to the 50% level. So in total, 
for the side with fewer resources the performance curve 
looks like a basin. 
For pure Monte Carlo game search (resource parameter = 
number of random games per move) I found this basin 
structure in games like “Double Step Races”, Clobber, 
ConHex, “Fox versus Hounds”, “EinStein wurfelt nicht”. 
My very long test series give statistical significance. 

I have made a report with my findings public. It can
be downloaded from
http://www.althofer.de/monte-carlo-basins-althoefer.pdf

Feedback is welcome.

Ingo.
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