Amazing! Basically, it is your opinion that in a match betweer Rybka and a human champion like Anand or Carlsen, the computer would win 80% of games, and draw the rest? That a human world champion would be unable to draw even half of his games, even given White to start? It is too hard to believe, IMO. In the absence of a match, the explanation of drift in an isolated rating system is a more believable theory. Brian
_____ From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Don Dailey Sent: Sunday, October 31, 2010 2:42 PM To: [email protected] Subject: Re: [Computer-go] new predictions? On Sun, Oct 31, 2010 at 2:30 PM, Jacques Basaldúa <[email protected]> wrote: Don Dailey wrote: To the best I can estimate it is something like 300 ELO now which means in a short match there is almost no chance > for the human. It is more than that, around 500. Only a match with a handheld device could be seen as similar strength: I'm being ultra conservative when I say 300 and I consider it an absolute lower bound. The reason one must be careful is that there is some slop in equating computers to humans. Computers have their own ratings lists which attempt to be in line with human ratings but it is widely believed that the top programs have some distortion - in other words they are a bit over rated compared to humans. Programs that are a few hundred ELO weaker are not over-rated but the top ones are. Computer vs Computer can produce these distortions. So 300 is the lowest figure I would be willing to stake my life on - but I believe it's probably more like 400 or maybe even your 500 value. Larry Kaufman has produced a formula that he thinks will give more accurate ELO ratings to the top machines, it basically compresses the ratings of program with more than a certain ELO and I forget how it works. I don't think it removes more than 100 ELO so maybe 400 is pretty close to the right value - but in either case I think it's absolutely clear than computers are superior and it's not even close. Don Top humans are near 2800 (ratings.fide.com) Rank Name Title Country Rating Games B-Year 1 Carlsen, Magnus g NOR 2826 0 1990 2 Topalov, Veselin g BUL 2803 0 1975 3 Anand, Viswanathan g IND 2800 0 Google for Rybka elo: On a phone: Pocket Rybka 3: 2869 ELO on PocketPC? 23 Aug 2008 17.01.2009 Deep Rybka 3 x64 2GB Q6600 2.4 3227 I read somewhere (ICGA Journal I think) that it is over 3300 now. So about 500 points over the top human. Jacques. _______________________________________________ Computer-go mailing list [email protected] http://dvandva.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/computer-go
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