> Datum: Fri, 17 Jun 2011 18:22:32 -0400
> Von: Michael Williams <[email protected]>
>
> If we are only looking for the shape of the curve, then maybe each
> datapoint does not need to be as precise as +/- 10 ELO.


Sorry, but your comment missed the point.
My strange result ( MC(4) performs clearly better against MC(1)
than expected after knowing the quota for MC(4)-vs-(MC(2) and
MC(2)-vs-MC(1) ) is NOT due to fluctuations of small sample size.

IT IS A PHENOMENON.

Ingo.


> > I am not a go programmer, but in experiments with very
> > simple model games I found the following phenomenon,
> > when looking at the "basic" Monte Carlo algorithm in
> > 3 levels: MC(1), MC(2), MC(4).
> > [Here MC(k) is the version which makes k random games for each candidate
> > move.]
> >
> > I found several cases (more than 30 % of the games analysed this way)
> > with the following phenomenon:
> > Elo difference between MC(1) and MC(2) = k(1,2)
> > Elo difference between MC(2) and MC(4) = k(2,4).
> > Elo difference between MC(1) and MC(4) > k(1,2) + k(2,4)
> >
> > The games under investigation were so simple that I was able to run
> > 100,000 matches in selfplay (or even more), and the inequality above
> > ( k(1,4) > k(1,2) + k(2,4) ) was statistically significant.
> >
> > Ingo


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