I agree, simple x-y graphs have little dimension in real experience. More interesting prediction is this http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/16/magazine/16Bruce-t.html?scp=3&sq=magazine%2016%20August%202009&st=cse
Although I would not sink my needed cash for a Zune, I grow uneasy with the dominance of the iPod empire. iTunes, formerly straightforward simple program, now is yet another avenue open to data mining. I take no comfort in watching microsoft thrash about in its desperate effort to catch up. Pogue is entirely right: the competition is about software; Zune's hardware is actually better, although its future isn't assured: I'm not trading in my Touch. --- On Thu, 9/17/09, Snyder, Mark - IdM (IS) <[email protected]> wrote: From: Snyder, Mark - IdM (IS) <[email protected]> Subject: Re: [CGUYS] Hype Cycle Graph To: [email protected] Date: Thursday, September 17, 2009, 6:27 AM Tom, I have seen these hype charts from Gartner for many years, and monitored them when I did technology change management for a DoD project, for a little over 15 years. They are just two-dimensional; plain x-y axis: just expectations mapped over time to wide-spread adoption. They did not prove to be very useful and I always took these charts with a large grain of salt. They are very M$-centric. For what Gartner is calling presence, for example, M$ has Office Communicator, a chat/meeting tool. My current group does use that as we are spread out over the country. When I take a day off, I flag myself as away-PTO and note when I will return (PTO is paid time off). The charts always look to behind; OLED is listed as 2-5 years from main-stream adoption (Zune is OLED). Thank you, Mark Snyder -----Original Message----- http://www.newscientist.com/data/images/ns/cms/dn17705/dn17705-1_671.jpg Cool graphic that takes a bit of work to figure out. Plots the hype level (expectations) vs time vs time to adoption. I'm not sure I get the 2 time scales yet. Anybody got an insight here? At the very peak of the hype curve they put Project Natal and mark it as 5 to 10 years to reality. Closest to reality is Presence. I guess that is this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presence_information and I don't see that this is interesting enough to even mention. Anyone to enlighten me? ************************************************************************* ** List info, subscription management, list rules, archives, privacy ** ** policy, calmness, a member map, and more at http://www.cguys.org/ ** ************************************************************************* ************************************************************************* ** List info, subscription management, list rules, archives, privacy ** ** policy, calmness, a member map, and more at http://www.cguys.org/ ** *************************************************************************
