Questions of secession and democratic representation in the new Iraqi constitution are particularly problematic because of the international context within which Iraq finds itself, a context which has no easy analogy to the American case.
On secession: Turkey has expressed extreme nervousness about an independent Kurdistan in the north, perhaps even enough to go to war against it should it declare itself. Saudi Arabia has expressed extreme nervousness about an independent Shiite Republic in the South, to the point of considering it presumptively hostile to their particularly strict form of Sunni Islam. If the new constitution allowed either to secede, we could reasonably expect a new round of devastating wars in the region. On representation: For many of the same reasons, the US has never endorsed a one-person, one-vote principle for Iraq and seems particularly reluctant to entertain the idea of a truly representative constitutional convention. Shiites are about 60% of the population and are particularly aggrieved by their historic subjugation at the hands of the Sunnis, so one might reasonably expect a truly representative process run in simple majoritarian terms would produce a constitution that would ensure Shiite domination. But if that were to happen in post-war Iraq, this would generate complicated foreign relations -- an overly friendly Iran and an overly hostile Saudi Arabia, seen from the perspective of present US policy. So the US is in the awkward position of championing democracy while simultaneously being wary of a simple majoritarian system. These international complications are just one of the reasons why Iraq is unlikely to have a functioning constitution with any reasonable chance of survival within six months. There is simply no easy solution to these issues on the horizon at the moment. Presumably some strong form of federalism is the only way to square the circle here, in which case the asymmetric federalisms of Spain, Canada and Russia might be more attractive as models than the symmetrical federalism of the United States. Kim Lane Scheppele Professor of Law and Sociology University of Pennsylvania 3400 Chestnut Street, Philadelphia PA 19104 Phone: 215-898-7674 Fax 215-573-2025 Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
