Thanks for the comments. I am curious about one of your remarks Dave. You said the British 'club' culture would not be legal in the US. Why?
I think I agree with the CRE crash remarks with one caveat: it could be that we fundamentally have over-capacity today, when you consider CRE and residential together, which means the economic pressure long- term is going to favor letting the extra space simply go derelict. It may not even be able to deliver returns enough to cover variable costs and property taxes. Whether corporations pay directly, or reimburse employees partly, or whether employees/free agents carry the costs directly, the fundamental problem of CRE not being capable of delivering the returns remains, so NOBODY may be able to afford it. The issue of dignity aside, I am actually on the side of corporations here. Most people, even WITH office space, are rarely in their offices (Dan Pink, in Free Agent Nation, estimates that close to 70% of offices are unoccupied at any given time in a workday). Business owners rightly are starting to think that some mix of a few fixed offices, drop in space, and lockers, is all that is justifiable as a fixed cost. Still, locally, as both Dave and Ashok say, the math and local serendipity may lead to interesting opportunities. On Apr 15, 11:08 pm, Ashok Nare <[email protected]> wrote: > Venkat, > > Good post -- I haven't completed reading the whole post yet -- will leave a > comment after I do. However, I just wanted to say that this is a very > interesting and relevant discussion for someone like me who is trying to > become a space catalyst/owner. I am curious to get the views of experienced > space owners in this group. > > I also agree with David's comment about CRE crash -- I personally know at > least 3 friends who were told by their employers that they no longer will > have cubicles for them at the office and that they will have to work > remotely. This seems to be the trend right now with both small and big > companies. As David pointed out, this trend will definitely help coworking > in the short term atleast in few cities. > > Ashok > > On Wed, Apr 15, 2009 at 9:47 PM, David Doolin <[email protected]>wrote: > > > > > Good post. I left a comment. > > > Here are some other things: > > > 1. We're just about to have one of the biggest > > Commericial Real Estate crashes, ever. CRE always > > lags residential, and it's just getting started. I've > > watched my whole working life as companies reduce > > the dignity of their professional employees through > > first reducing office size, then eliminating private > > office in favor of cubes, then finally driving employees > > right out of the building. This may change, and I > > suspect it almost *has* to change in the future. > > For one, CRE rents are probably going to fall, possibly > > by a lot. If that happens, the pendulum will swing > > back to keeping people in the office. Back in > > the midwest, where parking is cheap, not only > > is one expected to appear at work, one is expected > > to be *punctual*: "Our workday starts at 7:30am." > > Management driven to cut infrastructure costs drove workers > > out of the office. Management without that constraint > > is going to want people IN the office, where they > > can keep an eye on them. > > > 2. The high cost of CRE makes it very difficult > > to bootstrap a business. If VC funding would > > dry up for a few years, CRE rents would fall back > > to a sustainable level. That is, rents would be inline > > with what a business's customer base could > > support. And a business with a lot of customers > > is going to be too busy serving those customers > > to worry about sharing the costs of a community > > workspace. > > > But there is still a lot of opportunity in the coworking > > space. I believe every neighborhood in SF with a > > business district could support at least one space > > (except Marina/Cow Hollow *cough*), and many could support > > several (Mission, Castro, Potrero Hill, SOMA, etc). > > > In my opinion, the biggest potential market (or customer > > base) for coworking is hardly discussed: Early retirement > > aged Boomers (IANAB). Talented, hard-working, with > > a lot of skills, and utterly unemployable people. > > > I'll close with that. > > > -d > > > On Wed, Apr 15, 2009 at 6:46 PM, Venkat <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > I have been reading this group and following the conversations for a > > > couple of months, though I haven't yet found a way to take the plunge. > > > Hope you guys find my latest blog post on coworking entertaining; it > > > combines a review of "I'm out of here" with some general thoughts on > > > the movement: > > >http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2009/04/15/coworking-im-outta-here-by-jones... > > > > Regards, > > > > Venkat --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Coworking" group. 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