Marilee: The total potential coworking market is big and growing:). A few numbers:
1. There are about 15 million home-based businesses in the US (SBA numbers). Of these, about 6.6 million produce at least half of the owner's household income ( a good proxy for full-time) and about 3.3 million have employees (data from our study on homebased businesses based on surveys as part of the University of Maryland/Network Solution Small Business Success Index). While not all home-based businesses are possible coworkers, most at least would fall into the category of possible. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has a slightly broader definition of home-based businesses and includes contract workers. Their 2008 number for home-based business workers was 17.2 million 2. Most studies of employed telecommuters (people who work for a company but telecommute) find about 17-18 million US telecommuters. The World at Work study is a good example of these studies. It is at: http://www.worldatwork.org/waw/adimLink?id=31115 While not all telecommuters are potential coworkers, again most probably would fall into the category of possible. So you could start with 34-35 million as the potential addressable US market for coworking. To get a more realistic number, you would need to do some segmentation work to go from possible to viable, and from viable to interested. We haven't done this, but a guesstimate that 20% of home-based business workers and telecommuters could work from a coworking facility seems reasonable. This would put the current US addressable market at about 7 million. But given the number people currently using coworking facilities in the US - almost certainly below 25,000 and likely below 15,000 (we'll have a better number when we complete our study), the current penetration rate is going to be low no matter how sharp your segmentation blade is. Steve On Jul 20, 7:44 am, marileebowlescarey <[email protected]> wrote: > Great inisghts, Steve. I wonder if you have been able to estimate the > total size of the potential market or how you would measure it? > > Marilee > > On Jul 15, 2:58 pm, "[email protected]" > > > > <[email protected]> wrote: > > Our research assistants have been working away developing a count of > > the number of coworking facilities in the US. While we are not done, > > it looks like our estimate will be in 250 range. Our estimate last > > december came to about 215-220. > > > Several interesting things about the count: > > > 1. It is getting harder to do this. The main reason is coworking is > > evolving, blurring, hybridizing and shifting. For example, incubators > > are becoming coworking facilities, coworking facilities are becoming > > incubators and lots of facilities of various types are adding (or at > > least claiming to add) coworking features. Many of these "semi- > > coworking" facilities share some or many of the attributes of a > > traditional coworking space, but in other ways aren't coworking as we > > tend to think of it. > > > While I think the evolution of coworking and the growth of hybrids is > > a good thing, it makes it much harder to decide whether or not a > > specific facility should be counted as a coworking facility. It also > > challenges our ability to do a consistent count over time. There is > > already a risk our we are counting apples and oranges instead of just > > apples. > > > We will post our facilities list once it has been cleaned up a bit. > > > 2. There is a fair amount of facility churn. About 10-15% of > > facilities on our list in December have fallen off our current list > > due to closure or shifts in direction. There are, obviously, a lot of > > new facilities on our list. Some are green field and others are > > existing spaces that have added and/or shifted to a coworking model. > > > While we aren't focused on coworking business models at this time, it > > does appear to be an area ripe for research:). > > > 3. Coworking has moved beyond the major cities and is spreading > > rapidly in mid-sized cities and smaller towns. > > > 4. The number of niche or targeted coworking facilities (aimed at > > writers, or telecommuters, or social entrepreneurs, or makers, etc.) > > is growing. It is a logical extension of the "like minded people" > > phrase we so often hear and use when discussing coworking. > > > 5. There are lots of facilities under development with plans to open > > in the next 6-12 months. It appears to us that the facility growth > > rate is accelerating due to the addition of new facilities and re- > > purposing of existing non-coworking facilities. > > > Given how few facilities there are relative to the potential > > addressable market, an accelerating growth rate is not surprising. > > > Steve- Hide quoted text - > > - Show quoted text - -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Coworking" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/coworking?hl=en.
