Mark,
Speaking of Japanese economic woes, I picked up Michael Porter's latest
offering 'Can Japan Compete?' (After all, we have to see what the opposition
is saying) and lo and behold we see his recipe for what the Japanese
government and industry should be doing (and, given his reputation as an
adviser to governments around the world, will be doing) to restore the
country's economic fortunes. It's a fairly familiar recipe of de-regulation,
opening of markets, greater competition, etc which I won't bore you with. In
connection with the government's approach to industry, one sentence stood
out, however : "...government attempts to manage and protect the interest of
a limited number of companies, is obsolete in a global economy where
government has lost the power to control competition..."
Nice to see the opposition agreeing with me!
John Bunzl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Mark Jones" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "crl" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Saturday, August 05, 2000 8:59 AM
Subject: [CrashList] from Ft.com: Japanese land prices add to economic
concerns
> [documenting the economics of the Crash is also why we are here. What is
happening
> Japan is interesting: just as there is no historical precedent (the say)
for the
> current US boom, so there is no precedent that I know of for the Japanese
> delfation, now in its 12th year; the Nikkei is still half what it was at
its
> height in 1988. Japan-US are dynamically interlinked and if Japan's
deflation
> turns into outright depression, the effect on the dollar may be
spectacular, given
> US continuing indebtedness. As an afterthought, appended is what the FT
thinks you
> should be reading on the beach this summer.Mark ]
>
> By Michiyo Nakamoto in Tokyo
> Published: August 4 2000 13:10GMT | Last Updated: August 4 2000 22:31GMT
>
>
>
> Japanese real estate prices fell for the eighth year running in the 12
months to
> January 2000, highlighting the continuing weakness of demand and
triggering
> further concerns about the economic outlook.
>
> Land prices in Japan fell 7 per cent last year, almost as much as they did
in
> 1998, reflecting the drawn-out aftermath of the asset inflation in the
late 1980s.
>
> According to the National Tax Administration Agency, land prices were down
in
> almost all 47 prefectures, with the single exception of Shimane where
prices
> remained flat.
>
> Commercial land prices fell 12 per cent while residential land prices were
equally
> soft, declining 3.6 per cent. Tokyo land prices declined by 7.2 per cent
while
> Osaka suffered a 9.6 per cent fall.
>
> The decline in real estate prices has added to growing concerns about the
economic
> outlook amid falling share prices and weak consumption data.
>
> Household spending, which is crucial to a rebound in Japan's sluggish
economy,
> fell 1.8 per cent in the year to June, according to government data
released
> earlier this week. The stock market has also fallen sharply, dogged by
concerns
> about corporate bankruptcies since the failure of the Sogo retail group.
The
> benchmark Nikkei 225 average has fallen about 11 per cent in the past
month
> closing at 15,667.36 on Friday.
>
> The difficult environment has put pressure on the Japanese government to
come up
> with new ways to stimulate the economy, which has failed to return to
> self-sustaining growth in spite of an injection of Y100,000bn worth of
public
> funds. The latest plan is to extend the use of construction bonds to
projects
> other than public works.
>
> A committee of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party has been mulling the
> possibility of using such bonds, which are strictly restricted to public
works
> projects, for investment in telecommunications, welfare and the
environment.
>
> However, the plan has triggered criticism from government leaders who are
> concerned that such a change could lead to even more excessive fiscal
spending.
> "The issue should be thoroughly and carefully discussed," said Hidenao
Nakagawa,
> chief cabinet secretary.
>
> The government is under growing pressure to address the grim outlook,
since a
> slowdown in public works in the autumn, and a likely rise in corporate
> bankruptcies, are expected to depress the economy further.
>
> The outlook for the real estate sector also remains grim, according to
analysts.
> "It will take another one or two years," for prices to change course, says
> Toshihiko Okino, industry analyst at UBS Warburg in Tokyo.
>
> The residential sector is expected to see an oversupply of condominiums as
early
> as the fall, while the commercial sector in Tokyo, for one, will see a
surge in
> supply as large new developments become available in 2002 and 2003.
"Unless there
> is very strong demand, there will be an oversupply of commercial
property," Mr
> Okino warns.
>
> Additional reporting by Bayan Rahman
>
> --------------------------------------------
>
>
> Books for the bosses on the beach
> Martin Dickson suggests some holiday reading to entertain and stimulate
the mind
> Published: August 4 2000 19:37GMT | Last Updated: August 4 2000 19:46GMT
>
>
>
> What books should chief executives be reading as they sit by their villa
pools
> this summer?
>
> Holiday reading is, of course, a very personal matter. The prime aim of a
break is
> to refresh body and mind, and some will find that easier staring into the
middle
> distance or sailing a yacht than poring over yet more print.
>
> But holidays can be a useful time for business people to raise their eyes
from the
> day-to-day grind and take stock of the wider social and economic context
in which
> they are operating. For this group, the literary holy grail is that rare
book that
> entertains, stimulates the intellect, and encourages lateral thinking.
>
> Unfortunately, the biggest business issue of the day - the internet
revolution -
> has produced remarkably few books which come anywhere near this. Almost
all are
> breathless, boosterish or adulatory.
>
> Not so The Social Life of Information (Harvard Business School Press),
which looks
> at the interaction between information technology and human intelligence
and
> concludes that information is not the same as knowledge; that it takes
human flair
> and enthusiasm to create wisdom.
>
> A strength of the book is that it is written not by luddites but two men
close to
> the cutting edge: John Seely Brown is chief scientist at Xerox's Palo Alto
> research centre, home of some of computing's biggest breakthroughs, while
Paul
> Duguid is an academic at the University of California, Berkeley.
>
> Michael Lewis captures some of the flavour of Silicon Valley in The New
New Thing
> (Hodder & Stoughton), an uneven but entertaining portrait of Jim Clark,
the
> larger-than-life serial entrepreneur who created the internet browser
company
> Netscape.
>
> Genome: The Autobiography of a Species in 23 Chapters (Fourth Estate)
covers that
> other high-technology revolution - genetics. Science writer Matt Ridley
gives a
> lucid layman's person's guide to the nature of human genes, their function
and the
> philosophical implications of applied genetics.
>
> Anyone with severe market withdrawal symptoms should read Irrational
Exuberance
> (Princeton), a critique of the Wall Street bull market by Robert Shiller,
Yale
> economics professor, who examines the psychological factors (herd
behaviour,
> sports-like media coverage and new age thinking) behind the rise of the
Dow and
> reaches some chilling conclusions.
>
> For a historic perspective, The Go-Go Years by John Brooks (Wiley) is a
classic
> account of 1960s exuberance (with some eerie parallels to now) and its
spectacular
> demise. For takeover junkies, Taken for a Ride: How Daimler-Benz Drove Off
With
> Chrysler by Bill Vlasic and Bradley Stertz (Wiley), presents a breathless
and
> US-centric but entertaining account of Daimler's swallowing of Chrysler.
>
> Globalisation is another big business issue, but books on the subject tend
to be
> dull or platitudinous - not great beach reading. Better to delve into two
works,
> published a few years ago, that put in sweeping historical context the
factors
> that have made some countries rich and others poor.
>
> The Wealth and Poverty of Nations by David Landes (Little, Brown) offers
the
> analysis of an erudite historian. Guns, Germs and Steel by Jared Diamond
(Vintage)
> presents an extremely original scientist's-eye perspective. A book to
change your
> view of the world.
>
> With a US presidential election in the offing, you may want to know the
candidates
> better. Shrub: the short but happy political life of George W. Bush, by
Molly
> Ivins and Lou Dubose (Random House), is an irreverent and critical
examination of
> the Republican nominee's record as governor of Texas. Al Gore gets
balanced,
> insightful treatment in Inventing Al Gore: A Biography by Bill Turque
(Houghton
> Mifflin).
>
> Social decay, a topic in this and every other US election, is the subject
of a
> book that could become a sociological classic. Bowling Alone: The Collapse
and
> Revival of American Community (Simon and Schuster) by Robert Putnam
laments the
> decline of informal social institutions, such as bowling leagues, which
were once
> the glue of many American communities. The result: civic malaise amid
economic
> prosperity.
>
> Civic collapse amid political chaos is the theme of In The Footsteps of Mr
Kurtz
> (Fourth Estate), by the FT correspondent Michela Wrong - a grim comedy of
the
> grotesqueries that accompanied the end of the Congo's Mobutu regime.
>
> For sports fans, Brilliant Orange by David Winner (Bloomsbury) is a highly
> original search for the origins of Dutch football culture, while King of
the World
> (Picador) is the prize-winning story of Muhammad Ali by David Remnick,
editor of
> the New Yorker.
>
> As for novels, two recent ones from heavyweight authors stand out: The
Human Stain
> (Cape) by Philip Roth, the final part of his American trilogy, and Booker
> prizewinner Disgrace (Vintage), J.M. Coetzee's spare evocation of
post-apartheid
> South Africa.
>
> Among new writers, White Teeth by Zadie Smith (Hamish Hamilton) is a comic
family
> epic of multi-cultural north London. A Heartbreaking Work Of Staggering
Genius
> (Picador), an autobiography/novel by American Dave Eggers, is a huge hit
in the US
> and is reviewed in today's Weekend section.
>
> For those who prefer their literature classical rather than post-modern,
Anthony
> Trollope's The Way We Live Now (Oxford) is a tale of a great financier's
> fraudulent machinations in the 1870s railway business, and a satire of a
society
> in the throes of bull market excess. But on second thoughts, perhaps that
is a
> little close to home.
>
>
>
>
>
>
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