[I'm still reading the James Hansen article; I'd like to know if anyone
here knows anything about Jesse Ausubel, and how close is his Harvard
institute's connections with the Nasa climate people? Mark]
Jonathan Leake, Environment Editor
Big thaw hits the North Pole
THE North Pole is melting for the first time in 55m years. Researchers have
found that the icecap at the top of the world has turned into a mile-wide
patch of open ocean.
The melting of the pole last happened on such a scale when the Earth was
going through a period of rapid warming. This year's meltdown has been
linked with the greenhouse effect, where gases released by burning fossil
fuels are trapping ever more heat in the atmosphere and so warming the
Earth.
The melting was discovered by James McCarthy, an oceanographer and member of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is sponsored by
the United Nations to advise governments on global warming. It coincides
with official confirmation that the icecap covering Greenland is also
disappearing.
Earlier research conducted by McCarthy has shown that the average summer
thickness of ice at the North Pole was about 9ft. This year, however, he was
able to take a ship directly to the pole and then had to float over it -
because there was no ice to stand on. "It was totally unexpected," he said.
Researchers had warned that the polar icecap was shrinking by about 6% a
year, but nobody had expected the North Pole to melt until global warming
had become much more severe.
The meltdown could also counteract the Gulf Stream, which keeps Britain's
climate two to three degrees warmer than countries at similar latitudes.
The Eocene period, 55m years ago, was the last time the world's climate grew
rapidly warmer. Fossil evidence shows that it became warm enough for
tropical vegetation and animals to flourish in the Arctic and Antarctic
circles.
The news comes as the IPCC is drafting an important report on global warming
for publication in January.
This weekend it emerged that the report will, for the first time, confirm
that the Greenland icecap has not only started to melt but also will
eventually disappear unless global warming can be halted.
Sir John Houghton, former head of the Meteorological Office and who now
heads the IPCC's scientific panel, said the report would make it clear to
governments that the world's climate was changing rapidly.
"We are confident that climate change is due to human activities," he said.
The news also anticipates the November reopening of negotiations in the
Hague over ratifying the 1997 Kyoto climate change agreement.
Under the agreement, first world countries such as Britain and the United
States of America have to reduce their greenhouse emissions sharply by 6%-8%
by 2012.
Britain is likely to meet the target but, the report will say, most other
countries will fail. America - the world's biggest emitter of carbon
dioxide - is predicted to increase emissions by 15%.
There is also no agreement on reductions after 2012.
Houghton and his colleagues will tell governments that the world must slash
greenhouse gas emissions to 60% of 1990 levels by 2050 to avoid the worst
effects of climate change.
If the reductions are left for another 50 years it could prove too late.
The Hadley Centre - the Meteorological Office's climate change unit - has
warned of a "runaway" greenhouse effect where temperatures would reach a
point at which it could no longer be stopped.
Tony Juniper, campaigns director for Friends of the Earth, said the melting
of the North Pole showed how urgently action was needed.
"The melting polar ice is consistent with the predictions of scientists," he
said. "It shows global warming is for real and governments must agree
tougher pollution targets."
Dr Peter Wadhams, a specialist in sea ice at the Scott Polar Research
Institute in Cambridge, said it was wrong to suggest that the North Pole had
never lost its ice.
"Polar ice is always moving and these gaps can open up anywhere, including
the North Pole - but it is true that there are now many more of them," he
said. "Our research shows the average thickness of the polar ice has reduced
by 40% and its area is shrinking by 4% a year. By the end of this century it
will have disappeared completely."
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