Mark,
Do you have a reference web site for this article? I couldn't find the
Swedish Defense Research Institute on the web.
Thanks,
Gottfried
Gottfried J.Mayer, Ph.D.
Editor, Complexity Digest
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]On Behalf Of Mark Jones
Sent: Saturday, August 26, 2000 4:55 AM
To: crl
Subject: [CrashList] Swedish Defense Research Institute Assesses Russian
Socioeconomic Conditions
Swedish Defense Research Institute Assesses Russian Socioeconomic Conditions
Stockholm Swedish Defense
Research Institute in Swedish 1 May 00
[Report from Swedish Defense Research Institute: "How Great are the Risks
for a Socioeconomic Collapse in Russia? An Inventory of Russian Problem
Areas " -- first paragraph is report editor Jan Leijonhielm's introduction]
The present study was prepared in consultation with FOA's Reference Group II
for analysis of Russia. The group consists of Professor Erik Berglof of the
Eastern Economic Institute, Docent Lars-Erik Blomquist of Sodertorn
University, editor Malcolm Dixelius of Dixit, Professor Anders Fogelklou of
Uppsala University, Russia expert Torgny Hinnemo of the Foreign Ministry,
Docent Lena Jonsson of the Foreign Policy Institute, Gosta Laven who is in
charge of Russian affairs at the National Police Board, Rutger Palmstierna
who is chief analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken, and the undersigned,
who is responsible for the content and wording of the study.
Stockholm, April 2000
Jan Leijonhielm
Contents
Introduction
1. The term "collapse"
2. Critical areas
2.1 The danger of widespread hunger
2.2 The energy supply
2.3 The risk of mass unemployment
2.4 The danger of a breakdown in the financial system
2.5 The risk of extensive migration
2.6 Disruptions in the transportation and distribution network
2.7 The threat from the criminal element
2.8 The risk of armed conflicts
2.9 The role of the armed forces
2.10 The role of the central state apparatus
3. Effects on the rest of the world
3.1 Influence on the former Soviet republics
3.2 Influence on the rest of the world
3.3 Risk of "spillover" from armed conflicts
4. Scenarios
4.1 A state in increasingly rapid dissolution
4.2 Sudden collapse
4.3 The economic crisis causes gradual collapse
References
HOW GREAT IS THE RISK OF SOCIOECONOMIC
COLLAPSE IN RUSSIA?
An Inventory of Russian Problem Areas
Introduction
...
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