Introduction This paper will argue that populations exhibit a behaviour that could be described as punctuated equilibrium[1]. That is, populations generally exhibit long-term homeostasis. During brief and rare periods in history, population pressures lead to the commercialisation of a new source of energy � particularly a higher quality energy source � which in turn will raise the population ceiling, or the number of people the earth can support. At this stage, populations will grow quickly to approach the newly raised ceiling, then growth will slow and a new homeostasis will develop. The planet could not support the six billion people that exist today without first the commercialisation of coal, then of oil and gas. If these energy sources were necessary for the historically rare and unprecedented population growth that has occurred over the last three hundred years, then this growth might be correlated (and modelled), in some way, after the pattern of consumption of these energy sources. In 1750, the world�s population was approximately 720 million people. Over the previous 1000 years, this population had been growing very slowly at an average rate of about 0.13%. At this rate population doubles every 500 years and it would have taken over 1500 more years (sometime near the year 3250) to reach our current population of 6 billion people. But sometime in the 18th century, circumstances changed and population began growing rapidly. The most common explanation for this change in circumstances is that a mortality revolution reduced the rate at which people died and that this mortality revolution was brought about by the Industrial Revolution. The Industrial Revolution changed everything. It was an economic revolution, which spawned revolutions in science, technology, transportation, communication and agriculture. As a consequence, humanity began to experience improvements in health, nutrition, food variety, medicine and quality of life. More people survived infancy and childhood and they carried on to live longer lives. Because people were dying less quickly, populations grew more quickly. Large and sustained population growth is thus a contemporary phenomenon: until historically recent times it was rare to non-existent. Preindustrial populations grew when times were good (favourable climatic, agricultural, political and economic conditions) and shrank when times were bad (droughts, famines, wars, plagues, bad weather). Population growth was at all times restricted by the amount of land and food available. Land was needed to grow food for humans, fodder for animals and trees for building and fuel. As populations grew and occupied prime land, people were forced onto less productive land and the competing interests of food, fodder and fuel grew stronger. [more at http://dieoff.com/page199.htm ] _______________________________________________ Crashlist resources: http://website.lineone.net/~resource_base To change your options or unsubscribe go to: http://lists.wwpublish.com/mailman/listinfo/crashlist
