An opposition united behind one candidate has its best chance in a decade to oust the Yugoslav President amid intimidation and fears of electoral fraud Special report: Serbia Gillian Sandford in Belgrade and agencies Sunday September 17, 2000 President Slobodan Milosevic is fighting for his political survival as he enters the last week of a vicious presidential campaign tainted by intimidation and haunted by fears of electoral fraud. Faced for the first time in a decade by an opposition united behind a single candidate, Milosevic is trailing in every opinion poll. But observers fear his defeat, which would bring a political sea change in Yugoslavia, will be followed by repression and bloodshed. Tensions rose last week when a gang of men in civilian clothes stormed the Belgrade offices of the get-out-and-vote campaign on Friday. They entered the office of the group, known as Vreme Je (It Is Time), locking the youngsters working there in a room and taking computers, documents and other equipment. The Vreme Je workers were sighted in handcuffs being offloaded from a van at Belgrade police station, said lawyer and opposition politician Gaso Knezavic. Last weekend police moved on the headquarters of the student-based resistance group Otpor, leaving a small group of youngsters badly shaken after being roughed-up but not seriously injured. The regime has refused to allow observers from allegedly hostile countries and organisations to monitor the elections. And opposition activists across Serbia have been hauled into police stations for 'informative talks'. Last week the regime campaign switched into high gear. Milosevic made two rare personal appearances. Last Tuesday he opened a new hydro-electric dam and on Friday the Zastava car plant in Kragujevac. His speech was plastered across the front of the state newspaper, Politika, and dominated state television news, which played on the regime's campaign theme: reconstruction. 'This generation really has something to leave to the generation to come - a 10-year-old resistance to violence, strongly expressed national solidarity and courageous ability to cope in difficult times,' he said. But, Veselin Simonevic, editor of the popular non-government newspaper Blic, says this time it won't wash. 'In the short and long term, Milosevic is a loser. To a large number of citizens, he is finished.' Last summer, when Milosevic changed the constitution and made the position of president directly electable, it seemed a brilliant ruse, enabling him to hold power for a further two terms. He believed egocentric opposition leaders would continue their wars of vanity 'and in this he miscalculated', says Simonevic. According to opinion polls, the politician most people would vote for as a presidential candidate was the leader of one of the smaller parties, Dr Vojislav Kostunica, who is little known in the West. His candidacy has turned the presidential poll into a serious race for high stakes. In two weeks Kostunica has criss-crossed the country, drumming up support from the eastern border towns to the west, and even made a dangerous trip to Kosovo, when the Nato-led protection force had to intervene with riot squads to separate warring pro- and anti-Milosevic Serbs. Kostunica's aim is to mobilise disillusioned voters. He offers what many say they seek: 'changes' and 'a normal life'. Analysts say if Milosevic were defeated 'it would destroy the decade-long myth of invincibility'. 'Milosevic did not count on Kostunica,' says Simonevic. 'He counted that the leaders of the opposition parties who always struggle between themselves will do so again and that he would be able to win. 'Many citizens are not for Milosevic and have not been for a long time,' he says, but explains that the opposition split the anti-Milosevic vote. This time this is not happening. 'This is why Kostunica has a real chance.' Every opinion poll pub lished shows Kostunica ahead of Milosevic. The least optimistic showed Milosevic with 26 per cent and Kostunica with 29 per cent. But other polls have shown the opposition contender steaming ahead. Such a result would force a second round of voting - a run-off between Milosevic and Kostunica. No publicly released poll has shown Milosevic winning that. Former Socialist Party member Milovan Drecun, a former war reporter with state television who recently left to form his own opposition party, strongly asserts there will be voting fraud. According to Drecun, who still has many contacts in the Socialist Party (SPS): 'Milosevic wants to win the poll with 2.5 million votes in the first round. No second round is planned. 'There will be manipulation and if the manipulation leads to protests, he is preparing anti-riot police squads. He has well-trained units in the police for breaking protests.' Drecun says electoral fraud will focus on Kosovo and the two electoral districts in southern Serbia that encompass the province: Prokopulje and Vranje. The other area ripe for fraud, says Drecun, is Serbia's sister state in the federation, Montenegro, where the pro-West opposition government of Milo Djukanovic is boycotting the poll. Simonevic also believes that there will be fraud: 'They are prepared to steal as many votes as possible to avoid the second round,' he says. 'Many people expect a lot from these elections and from that a rebellion over fraud can be born. If that happens, Milosevic will try to make a brutal attack and use shock action.' _______________________________________________ Crashlist resources: http://website.lineone.net/~resource_base To change your options or unsubscribe go to: http://lists.wwpublish.com/mailman/listinfo/crashlist
