Guardian:

US navy sends reinforcements to Adriatic ahead of poll

Special report: Serbia


Jonathan Steele
Thursday September 21, 2000

The Yugoslav president, Slobodan Milosevic, flew to an army base in
Montenegro yesterday to denounce his opponents as "rabbits, rats and
even hyenas" and warn the west not to interfere in elections on
Sunday, which the opinion polls indicate that he cannot win.
Scores of Mr Milosevic's critics have been detained and with tension
rising the chief opposition candidate, Vojislav Kostunica, has warned
that the president could use fraud to stay in power. Western
governments fear he will use the army to crush protests if he is
declared the winner. A US aircraft carrier is being sent to the
Adriatic.

It was Mr Milosevic's first visit to Montenegro - which with Serbia
makes up Yugoslavia - since he became federal president three years
ago. His helicopter brought him to the rally near the town of Berane,
within 15 miles of Kosovo, where Nato-led troops could have arrested
him on war crimes charges brought by the Hague tribunal last year.

The republic of Montenegro is deeply divided and its pro-western
government, led by Milo Djukanovic, is boycotting the Yugoslav
election. A former Serbian information minister, Aleksandar Tijanic,
warned that Mr Milosevic was preparing to arrest the Montenegrin
president.

Mr Djukanovic said last night that Montenegro would defend itself if
Mr Milosevic provoked a military clash. Speaking to Russian
television, he said: "If Milosevic decides to provoke a military
conflict with Montenegro, we would have no choice but to defend our
freedom."

A US navy spokeswoman confirmed yesterday that the aircraft carrier
George Washington would arrive in the Adriatic from the Persian Gulf
on about September 30. "This is much the normal tour of duty," the
spokeswoman said. "There hasn't been a carrier in the Adriatic for
about three or four months and the George Washington is on its way
back to the Atlantic."

Mr Milosevic yesterday told a crowd of 10,000 supporters bussed in
from nearby towns: "Our country is the focus of much attention from
the world's strongest nations, as if mankind has no other worries but
how ... Serbs and Montenegrins will govern their joint state." Many in
the crowd shouted "Slobo, Slobo" and "We are all Yugoslavia".

He has clamped down on the independent media and ordered police to
confiscate computers and other material from Serbian election
monitoring groups. Under the law, independent observers have no right
to enter polling stations or attend the count.

Despite the pressures, the opposition has done remarkably well by
uniting behind Mr Kostunica, a Belgrade lawyer, Only the maverick
Serbian Renewal Movement is running a separate candidate. An opinion
poll by the Belgrade-based Strategic Marketing agency gave Mr
Kostunica 32.5% of the vote to Mr Milosevic's 26.6%. The Centre for
Policy Studies gave Mr Kostunica 41% to Mr Milosevic's 20%.

Mr Milosevic has support in rural areas and has manipulated the
campaign through control of state television. State controls on the
price of staple goods have also cushioned the realities of a weak
economy. But years of war and corruption at the top have disillusioned
many urban voters.

Warning of vote rigging, Mr Kostunica told a rally at the weekend:
"They are bullies, liars and thieves and have stolen years of our
lives and dignity. Now they are preparing to steal the elections".

Mr Milosevic could cheat by falsifying votes from Kosovo. The UN has
allowed the poll to go ahead there but will not be running or
supervising it. In the last Serbian presidential elections as many as
200,000 Albanians supposedly voted for Mr Milosevic's right-hand man.
Because of the boycott in Montenegro, Mr Milosevic can also steal
votes which are cast in army camps and town halls run by the
pro-Belgrade party.

The EU has offered to lift sanctions if the election "leads to
democratic change". The wording was chosen with care as the Yugoslav
constitution is so ambiguous it could allow Mr Milosevic to serve out
his term until next July, even if the opposition wins. But most
observers believe he is more likely simply to declare victory and hope
to ride out - or shoot out - any protests.



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