By Irena Guzelova in Belgrade
Published: September 21 2000 16:52GMT | Last Updated: September 21
2000 23:52GMT



Yugoslavia's opposition leaders appear to be ready to concede publicly
that they do not believe President Slobodan Milosevic will relinquish
power voluntarily after the country votes on Sunday.

The opposition parties, ahead in opinion polls, are confident about
winning the elections but expect widespread manipulation of results.
They have called the public out on to the streets to await the results
on Sunday night, and recognise that their success depends on people's
willingness to protest.

The government has dismissed opinion polls putting opposition
candidate Vojislav Kostunica comfortably ahead by between 6 and 20
percentage points as western propaganda portrayed the race as a choice
between "patriotism and treachery".

Veteran observers say the government may decide to ignore any protests
on Sunday and calculate that they will die down. Or they may order the
police to disperse the crowd with batons and tear gas, as they did
during demonstrations in May. A third scenario is for the authorities
to send in the army, with orders to put an end to the protests.

There is a sense of foreboding among many people in Serbia. They
recognise the importance of these elections, but are not sure how far
to go to protect their votes. Many fear the opposition's success could
trigger a harsher police crackdown.

The opposition is keen to prevent bloodshed. It has appealed to the
army and police to respect the will of the people and hopes to limit
Mr Milosevic's use of force. In the event of violence, they have
indicated they would back down. Their next strategy would be to
present themselves as the only credible force at next year's elections
for a Serbian parliament and president.

Diplomats who witnessed the collapse of communism in eastern Europe
say the first five days or so after the elections will be a crucial
indicator of what to expect.

The campaign has been marred by intimidation. Nebojsa Pavkovic, army
chief of staff, has referred to Sunday as "D-day" and said his troops
would prevent any attempt at "taking power in the street".

The opposition hopes that its appeal among middle and lower-ranking
officials in the ruling coalition will limit the scope for violence.

Natasa Kandic, director of the Humanitarian Law Centre, says that
between May and September police detained more than 2,500 opposition
members and members of pressure groups.



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