New at the website, an important new paper by Patrick Bond, Ilya
Prigogine's Letter about the Club of Rome, papers on energy,
geopolitics and crisis, and more.
http://website.lineone.net/~resource_base/bonds.doc The Production,
Reproduction and Politics of the Southern African Working Class:
Economic Crisis and Regional Class Struggle by Patrick Bond, Darlene
Miller and Greg Ruiters (Word97 format)
http://website.lineone.net/~resource_base/prigogine.htm Ilya Prigogine
on the Club of Rome
http://website.lineone.net/~resource_base/windpv.zip (European Union
plans for windpower and photovoltaics. The EC expects Europe to
install 100,000 Mw of windpower capacity by 2020.)
http://website.lineone.net/~resource_base/OilNotes.htm (collection of
earlier postings)
http://website.lineone.net/~resource_base/rand.zip (2 RAND papers on
oil and Nato)
http://website.lineone.net/~resource_base/417.pdf (Mikhail
Budyko:Climate catastrophes)
The CrashList website is at:
http://website.lineone.net/~resource_base
Also highly recommended, is Matthew R. Simmons White Paper, of which
Policy Pete said:
"Everyone thinks they understand the oil markets, but few really do.
It
takes more than a terminal into NYMEX and this week's API inventory
data.
One person with a relatively good claim is M. Simmons from Simmons &
Co.
He's been a significant industry analyst for a long time and Pete
finds some
of his more recent papers really interesting, even though his clients
in the
oil fields services business would certainly benefit if he's right.
Unfortunately, many of the interesting bits* are buried in 50 pages of
this
or that. So follow the title link to a comparison between 1973 and
today:
[http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/web/downloads/whitepaper.pdf]
Read the history if you don't know it, but pay particular attention to
his
analysis of the present (pp. 42 et seq.). "The reality of the world�s
oil
production base as we begin the 21st century is that all the super
giant
fields are now very old with high water cuts and steep decline curves
absent
extensive drilling / secondary recovery programs. The industry found
no
super giant fields post 1967/68 and only a handful of giant fields
post
1973. Moreover, most of these giant fields are now mere pygmies
through
rising decline rates. .... [Exploding demand] leads to a world needing
an
additional 40 million barrels of oil equivalent ("BOE") by 2010, plus
a
probable 80 million BOE per day to replace the oil and gas production
lost
by an estimated 10% per annum natural decline rate ..." Simmons
answers the
title question in the affirmative. His view is that prices are going
to
continue to rise. "
*He also covers the notable, compound errors in IEA data that helped
convince observers that a glut existed 18 months ago. (See p. 39)
The simmons paper is at:
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/web/downloads/whitepaper.pdf
Policy Pete (indispensable) is ate:
[http://qv3.com/policypete/
Mark
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