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Embarkadero,
You posed three questions about world population
and where it is leading.
No, actually I attempted to answer those questions. Someone else asked
them.
Tariq: Pop. growth is down in regions where the bulk of world pop. is not located, [except in China]. Tom: yes and the reason for this should be of immense alarm. What happened to the parents of 3 million orphans in Africa is not benign, nor a good thing. This particluar slowing of population growth is transient at best, not permanent. And it's the work of my old buddy Tom Malthus, not UNESCO Birth control. Tariq: Any drop in Europe or North America, though very significant, rather alarming, [at their scales] will not affect any fall in the overall pop. It is not material whetehr the total world pop. goes up or down. Tom: Unless, of course, one is concerned with such matters as resource depletion and how that affects the total population of the planet, regardless of where they live. Tariq: What really matters is the fluctions in pop. at different locales. Tom: You mean that it matters whether an individual consumes 4 times the energy he should in Turkey, vs consuming 4 times the energy he should after moving to Germany? Tariq: The serious drop in pop. in certain regions, like Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Canada will need influx from elsewhere, since nature dislkie vacums. Tom: More than dislike of vacuums, nature abhors runaway expansion of a single species, if the natural record is any indication.(you own a search engine, look for "extinction event") It almost doesn't matter where you live in the Northern Hemisphere, you are using too much of everything. The worst thing that could happen is that all the 98 babies born in the underdeveloped part of the world using 1x the resources should move to Manhattan and London and use 20x the resources. Although I grant you they should have the liberty to do so. Tariq: The flow in of pp. from the surplus areas is not going to be the present regulated flow of brain drain. It is going to be an opening of flood gates. Whatever, the teething problems of the soon to be massive population mixing, the world pop. is going to be more culturally cohesive, at least in the long-run. This will and is going to happen, dykes against pop. pile up on the other is not possible any further. We need to be prepared for this to happen. Tom: And how do you suggest we prepare? (Forgive me for a laugh, but I have this mental picture of a massive demonstration of short-haired women marching, holding signs "Dykes against Population" It's only because the dykes you speak of are actually dikes, and I shouldn't laugh. Please don't take it as a slam). Tariq: The concept of carrying capacity of earth is not cogent for a long time to come. On the contrary, the capacity to hold is pretty elastic. As we have experienced so far. Every time the doom sayers have been falsified, and the quality of living, measured on the scale of consumption, has not only kept pace with pop. rise but instead it has risen itself. Tom: This runs contrary to my research, and I would ask you how you arrive at these conclusions. I have already stated my position on carrying capacity in the response to Mark. The controlling words in your statement above are "so far". Most population experts I have read on both sides of this issue recognize that the elasticity of capacity, consumption and population numbers is directly dependent upon the deus ex machina of an expected-but-as-yet-not-existing technological advance. Those favoring your position ultimately say "it's always happened before, it will happen in the future". Those on the other side say "it won't happen if there are no natural resources left." (read > oil) Take your choice on the curve between the two camps. ... or recognize that the curve belongs to Hubbert and Hanson. Tariq: Stop at the borders, raising the dykes is not possible indefinitely. It is time the flood gates should be opened. The poor of the world's "village" will perforce be allowed to partake of the bounties of it's "urban" areas as well. The earlier it is accepted and make readiness for it when it happens the better would be its consequences. Tom: How do we make ready? And do you REALLY believe that the world can support 8 billion persons attempting to live the lifestyle of North Americans and Northern Europeans? Not even the population experts who believe as you do about capacity support such a notion. "There is nothing wrong with the planet. The planet is fine . . . been
here 4 1/2 billion years. We've been here, what, a 100,000 years, maybe 200,000?
And we've only been engaged in heavy industry a little over 200 years. 200
years versus 4 1/2 billion. And we have the conceit to think that somehow we're
a threat? The planet isn't going away. We are."
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