FROM MISHA GLENNY IN BELGRADE




VOJISLAV KOSTUNICA has said that he intends organising elections for a
constituent assembly in a year or so, but before then he must overcome
some very awkward political obstacles - not least the fact that he has
allies who are likely to become rivals quickly.

The movement that destroyed Mr Milosevic is a broad front in which
cracks are already appearing.

The new President is overwhelmingly the most popular figure in Serbia
but he could not have swept aside Mr Milosevic without the assistance
of several key figures. The most important of these is Zoran Djindjic,
whose Democratic Party was the backbone of the protest movement.
According to insiders, the two men distrust each other and both have
real political ambition.

The suave and attractive Mr Djindjic played the key role in organising
the general strike and people's protest on Thursday that eventually
brought Mr Milosevic down. A born politician, he has built up a very
forceful political machine that controls many regions at local level.

A former student activist and leftwinger, Mr Djindjic has had a
successful career both as a businessman and in politics. Many say that
his ambition knows few bounds, but his decision not to seek the
Opposition's presidential candidature, stepping aside for Mr Kostunica
instead, was crucial for the success of Thursday's revolution and a
sign that Mr Djindjic is prepared to sacrifice his ambition for the
common good. With the Democratic Party under his control, however, he
will not make life easy for Mr Kostunica.

Mr Kostunica will also have to beware two other snakes in the grass.
One is Vuk Draskovic, the maverick opposition figure who was suspected
by many of being in Mr Milosevic's pocket. The other is the
arch-nationalist Vojislav Seselj, the most troublesome of all. His
Radical Party is in a coalition with Mr Milosevic's Socialist Party.
Neither man is going to make life easy for Mr Kostunica.

Although Mr Kostunica's overwhelming popular support gives him
considerable political capital for the moment, he may well find that
his old friends will start to make life very difficult for him, as he
tries to make sense of the constitution, tackle the country's chronic
economic problems and reconcile Yugoslavia with the Balkans and the
West.

It is Yugoslavia's great fortune that Mr Kostunica is a constitutional
lawyer. The constitutional order with its multiple parliaments is a
shambles, made exceptionally complicated by curious relationship
between Serbia and its tiny sister republic, Montenegro. In order for
Yugoslavia to start functioning properly, it needs to be knocked into
shape quickly lest the country descends into a miasma of confusion.

Mr Kostunica's actual powers as Federal President are quite limited
and Mr Milosevic's coalition is the most powerful force in the
parliament.

For this reason, Mr Kostunica and his allies are trying in a very
short time to strike a deal with the SNP - the Montenegrin party that
once supported Mr Milosevic - in an attempt to block the influence of
Mr Milosevic's alliance in parliament when it meets for the first time
later today.

 The Times 07.10.00


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