By HOWARD SCHNEIDER BEIRUT Thursday 12 October 2000 Galvanised by the deaths of dozens of Palestinians over the past two weeks, the citizens and leaders of Arab states have appeared as if they were itching for payback. Angry protests erupted in normally placid countries like Morocco. University and high-school students donned black mourning wear and mobilised to raise money for Palestinian hospitals. Jordan's King Abdullah even rolled up his sleeve to give blood. America's most important Arab allies, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, joined a barrage of ominous talk, including an indirect brandishing of the oil weapon. "Barak has to think before taking any step," said Crown Prince Abdullah, the day-to-day ruler of Saudi Arabia and its oil riches, on Monday, referring to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak. "Nobody should think that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the whole Arab and Islamic nation would just watch with their hands tied." But despite deep-seated anger over a death toll blamed on the Israelis and, according to many in the Middle East, made possible by American support, oil from the Persian Gulf continues to flow. The embassies of Egypt and Jordan continue to open in Tel Aviv. And the rockets and bombs of terrorist groups or hardline anti-Israeli states, like Iraq and Iran, remain sheathed. No one discounts the risks in the 12-day-old street battles that have left about 90 dead in Israel, Gaza and the West Bank, almost all Palestinians, or the unnerving possibility it could descend into more serious, even regional, fighting. However, behind the rhetoric of recent days regional analysts and diplomats note that Arab states have done little or nothing to punish Israel or the United States, to escalate or prolong the fighting or to undermine chances that the Palestinians and Israelis will return to peace negotiations. But restarting those talks may prove difficult. It is likely Arab and Palestinian demands for control over Muslim holy sites in East Jerusalem will be that much stronger after bloodshed triggered over the issue. American policy elsewhere in the Middle East, such as the embargo of Iraq, may also be affected if Arab governments sustain their apparent unity over the deaths of the Palestinians. Arab governments appear united in disgust over the Palestinian deaths, to the extent that Kuwait and its nemesis Iraq have agreed to attend an Arab summit meeting later this month. However, there has been little evidence of any move to avenge the deaths. Indeed, the US is counting on an Arab leader, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, as an interlocutor to help dampen the violence. Arab governments "are interested in things cooling down", said Ghanim Najjar, director of Kuwait University's centre for strategic and future studies. Using an oil embargo, as Persian Gulf states did in the 1970s to punish America after the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, "is not on the table at all", said Mr Najjar. "That would take the continuation of a great use of force by the Israelis, and the total ignorance of the US Government," he said. There are exceptions, at least rhetorically. Libya, Iraq and non-Arab Iran are among states in the region with leaders who say they believe fighting Israel is the only option. Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has specifically threatened Israel as part of a "holy war" on behalf of Palestinians. Radical groups are also plentiful. Palestinian refugee groups in Lebanon are suspected of having made ties with the network of Osama bin Laden, the Saudi exile accused of ordering the bombing of two US embassies in East Africa. The Islamic Resistance Movement, or Hamas, and Islamic Jihad, another radical Palestinian group in Gaza and the West Bank, reject the terms of Yasser Arafat's peace discussions with Israel and also call for a battle. >From headquarters in Lebanon, the Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement has urged a general uprising in Israeli-controlled territory. Hezbollah leaders have said the movement hopes ultimately to liberate Jerusalem from Israeli control. They have used their widely watched television station to stir public sentiment and instruct Palestinians in tactics. Do not worry about tanks and heavy weapons, the group advised: "Each of you should carry a knife and fiercely stab an (Israeli) occupier." But the past two weeks of fighting has remained mostly local. Major car-bomb or terrorist attacks that could escalate matters have been absent - a far cry from the regional wars Arab states have fought with Israel in the past. Since the last multi-state Middle East conflict in 1973, Egypt and Jordan have signed peace treaties with Israel. They have based part of their foreign and domestic policies around pursuing a regional settlement. Syria considers peace with Israel a strategic aim. In any case, Israel's military might is considered overwhelming. It would take a cataclysmic step by Israel - a reoccupation of land ceded to Palestinian control under the 1993 Oslo accords, for example - to counter all of that, said Farid Khazen, an associate political science professor at the American University of Beirut. -WASHINGTON POST _______________________________________________ Crashlist resources: http://website.lineone.net/~resource_base To change your options or unsubscribe go to: http://lists.wwpublish.com/mailman/listinfo/crashlist
