[CrashList] Duncan's "Peak ... and Road to the Olduvai Gorge"

[perry arnett]

FWIW : in re:    http://dieoff.com/page224.htm   [probably the most important document you'll ever read...]   Dr. Duncan has done us all a very great service - posting his hypothesis in graph form with notes is a superb way to present a very difficult concept in a very quickly understandable form. [I speak here specifically of Figure #4]   He has, for want of a better word, given the world a road-map-to-the-future  - for those smart enough to use it.   I'd like to offer some slightly different conclusions, however :   1) I think his 2006 date may be optimistic and I would place that value at ~2003, because I think the Jihad will escalate faster and become more violent sooner, and will probably erupt into some form of nuclear exchange that will not be contained within the Middle East.   If that happens, and if the trashing of oil wells happens again like it did in 1990, then the per-capita-rate-of-energy-use will probably decline even further and faster, (there being less oil to go around, thus the lights will go out sooner), thus, again, accelerating the decline, and causing the steepening of the back side of the curve - thus, I bring forward Duncan's 2006 date by about 3 years (+/-) to ~2003.   2) if my #1 above is reasonably accurate then that makes the 'slide' have a steeper curve and the 'cliff' start sooner and have a steeper curve, also.   3) looking at the Figure #4 graph shows that if the 'slide' has a steeper curve, then all of the events he suggests will happen, will happen in my view, SOONER, rather than later.   4) if any of the above is reasonably accurate, then his 2030 date may be moved forward, I believe, to about 2015 to 2020.  I'm trifling here, to be sure, but if one is past 60, then a year here and a year there do matter... I am basically an optimist, with pessimistic leanings...   By his putting a 'picture' to all this through Figure #4, one can make personal plans for the future that are guided by :   a) reasonable time-lines,   b) observable events, and   c) projectable consequences.    [Being a 'rule-based thinker', that satisfies me tremendously!]   Again, not a criticism at all, because I believe Duncan has done a marvelous job.  His graph #4 is what I had been waiting for, for some time...    It is so pregnant with content that one can blow it up and expand the X axis scale [I've done that], and pencil-in events between 2000 and any date in the future AS THEY OCCUR, and then one can 'adjust the curve' of the 'slide' and the 'cliff' to reflect historical accuracy!  That should allow one to track world events precisely and be able to guide ones life intelligently - if one chooses to do that.    Makes a fantastic wall chart!  Should be blown-up and hung on everyones fridge, bathroom mirror, dashboard, etc.   Any CEO worth his salt should have this Figure #4 graph blown up to 4' x 6' and hung on the Board Room walls.  Should be the first topic of conversation in the halls of Congress, universities, family discussions, etc.  Could even make Tee shirts with this image on them.   Anyone who understands what Duncan has written who does not heed its import - is playing with his own future...   Also is great shrunk down to shirt pocket size (3" x 4") and laminated.  I carry mine with me everywhere...   If there is a 'bible'-of-the-future, this is it.    Marvelous work!   Thank you, Dr. Duncan!    [you most surely deserve the Nobel Prize - for having postulated and most clearly explained the future end of Industrial Civilization!]   Perry Arnett   [lest there be any doubters, read The Limits to Growth, Meadows and Meadows,1972, - you will not have any doubts any longer...better hurry, though...]   additionally, it appears that the site cited above is still under construction since the images today are without any color and show 'eraser' marks, where the images yesterday did not...   but DO persist in accessing that URL and wait while the images load so you can have the latest and best information available anywhere about your own future; you may also have to hit Reload a couple times in order for the last image to load; but DO IT!