Fueling China's Growth Oil has not figured prominently in the delicate relationship between the United States and China. But it soon will. China, the world's most populous nation with 1.3 billion people, will become one of the world's top oil importers in just a few years. This growing reliance on imported oil will further anchor China in the global economy and help shape its ties to the United States. Both nations should be thinking about how to manage this new reality and its strategic repercussions not only in East Asia, but also in places like the Middle East. Though the issue is not yet much discussed, it is being closely studied by the Central Intelligence Agency, academics and oil industry analysts. As he devises a China policy, President-elect George W. Bush can draw on the research, some of which has been done by the public policy institute at Rice University named after former Secretary of State James Baker. China's need for ever greater quantities of imported oil is driven by its torrid economic growth. In the next 20 years, China's gross domestic product is expected to quadruple, enhancing its people's living standards and partially closing the economic gap with the United States. The underlying force behind China's growth the great migration of its population to the cities and the creation of a middle class is still in its nascent stages. There are, for instance, 10 motor vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants in China, compared with 30 in Egypt, 148 in Mexico, 552 in Japan and 770 in the United States. A net exporter of oil until 1993, China now imports 1.2 million of the 4.5 million barrels it consumes a day. It is expected to import roughly 4 million barrels a day in 2010 and close to 7 million in 2020. The United States currently imports about 10 million a day. The Middle East is expected to supply more than three-quarters of China's oil imports by 2010. As this dependence grows, Beijing is likely to become a more active and influential actor in the Middle East. This may well complicate the American role in the region. Beijing has been cultivating ties with oil- producing nations, including Iran and Iraq. China dislikes international economic sanctions, claiming that they represent unwarranted interference in the affairs of sovereign states. In recent years, Beijing has supplied Iran with ballistic missile technology and has taken an indulgent line toward Iraqi defiance of United Nations weapons inspectors. But China's Middle East diplomacy has also grown more sophisticated than it was in the days of Mao Zedong, when Beijing's main allies were radical Palestinian terrorists. Now China maintains full diplomatic relations with Israel and seeks to purchase sophisticated Western military technologies from the Jewish state that it cannot buy directly from the United States or Europe. China's strategic interests, like those of other major oil importers, will increasingly lie in maintaining political and military stability throughout the Middle East. For that reason, Beijing should not want to see Iran and Iraq develop unconventional weapons with which they could threaten Israel and other neighbors. Encouragingly, China recently promised the United States that it would no longer help Iran or any other country develop advanced missiles. In future years, China could even come to rely on American naval power to keep sea lanes open to ensure the uninterrupted flow of its economic life blood. As China takes its place among the world's great powers, and attempts to integrate its economy into global markets, Beijing's need for foreign oil may have a moderating effect on Chinese behavior. That will require constructive thinking about China's future oil requirements by President Jiang Zemin and a willingness by the Chinese leadership to work alongside the United States in maintaining the free flow of oil around the globe. For a nation on the verge of becoming a full member of the World Trade Organization, that kind of attitudinal shift should be possible. Washington, for its part, should continue to encourage China's Communist leaders to see the two nations' growing economic interdependence as a source of stability and prosperity, not vulnerability. _______________________________________________ Crashlist resources: http://website.lineone.net/~resource_base To change your options or unsubscribe go to: http://lists.wwpublish.com/mailman/listinfo/crashlist
