Special report: George W Bush's America Martin Kettle in Washington Tuesday January 9, 2001 George W Bush is preparing to commit billions of extra dollars to develop a more elaborate system of national missile defence (NMD) which is certain to sour relations with Russia, China and Europe, and could bind future administrations to the policy. His plans, which are being driven by his vice-president, Dick Cheney, and his nominated defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, are likely to dwarf the 100-missile Alaska-based system which was under consideration by the Clinton administration before test failures last summer forced it to pass the issue to its successor's intray. The scale of the Bush team's thinking began to emerge as the president-elect met congressional leaders in Austin, Texas, yesterday to begin mapping out the Republican legislative programme for defence. His three principal campaign commitments on defence were raised at the meeting: a $1bn (#668m) pay rise for the armed forces, a $20bn boost for hi-tech weapons research, and the NMD system. "Strengthening the military is one of my top priorities," Mr Bush said. He was joined in the discussions by Mr Cheney, who is himself a former defence secretary, Mr Rumsfeld, and his national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice. They were attended by eight senior Republicans and six senior Democrats, including the chairmen of key defence-related committees in the Senate and House of Representatives. One notable absentee was General Colin Powell, Mr Bush's choice for secretary of will have the job of selling the NMD plans to America's allies, including Britain, which opposed the Clinton administration's scheme and object to Republican plans to abrogate the 1972 anti-ballistic missile treaty with Russia. Diplomats in Washington believe that Mr Powell is advising his colleagues not to plunge into an immediate and detailed commitment to implement NMD, but to remit the whole issue to a commission which could consider all the military, political and spending issues involved in a long-term strategic commitment to missile shields. Mr Powell is a supporter of missile defence, but he is understood not to favour developing a system in response to the dangers posed by North Korea, whose ability to launch missiles ostensibly triggered the current NMD development programme. Rather, he wants NMD to be a long-term strategic cornerstone of US defence strategy, and is anxious not to antagonise world opinion by what might otherwise appear to be a premature and provocative development. Mr Powell may get his way in having the implementation strategy remitted to a commission, but it will be given the job of defining how, not whether, NMD is introduced. Mr Bush's team has not yet said in public how it will build missile defences, but several radical developments are under discussion. All envisage a much bigger system than the Clinton administration's plan. The most important of these are design changes which would shift the NMD strategy from its current land-based launching sites to sea-based and space-based interceptors. "We need a system that is more robust than what the Clinton administration has designed," said Dave Smith, a Republican missile defence expert who served on the 1998 commission chaired by Mr Rumsfeld which persuaded Mr Clinton to go ahead. "If you want to be more robust you have to go to sea or to space, or to both," Mr Smith said. "The system needs to be global, it needs to be layered, and it needs to have an evolutionary approach." The most likely expansion, at least as the first step which Ms Rice supported in remarks during the election campaign last year, would be for sea-based interceptors. These would allow the US to attack enemy missiles at a much earlier stage in their trajectory, when interception would cause the debris, including any chemical or biological warheads, to fall over the launch country rather than the target country. Interceptors based at sea would also enable the US provide missile defence protection for its allies and American troops stationed overseas. Ms Rice believes this would be more attractive to Europe, as well as providing billions of dollars of extra contracts to the defence industries and their workforces. Republican military strategy is based on the belief that the US must always develop further and faster than any other country, an approach which would lead next to the development of interceptors located in space. "You serve notice to any potential challengers that there's always going to be something on the drawing boards," Mr Smith said. "You stay ahead of the threat." Useful links http://www.ucsusa.org/arms/0missile.html http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/program/nmd http://www.ucsusa.org/arms/0missile.html http://www.acq.osd.mil/bmdo http://www.defenselink.mil _______________________________________________ Crashlist website: http://website.lineone.net/~resource_base
