So, who do the new Bush people call in Japan? Who does the new administration talk to in Japan? Since Kato stumbled, it appears as though Japan has no leader who advocates government deregulation and economic reform. These words were spoken by a U.S. official who has been nominated for a financial Cabinet post in the new administration of George W. Bush that starts its work in January. The official, who has met with Koichi Kato of the Liberal Democratic Party on a number of occasions, said he felt Kato's eagerness to accomplish reform and thought he could be counted on. But the Mori adminis tration seems to lack such zeal, he said. When I heard him ask, Who does the new administration talk to in Japan? I was reminded of a similar question uttered by former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger during the mid-1970s, when he was speaking about European relations: Who on earth should we call? Even when a country recognizes another as an equal partner and tries to establish a new relationship, it does not necessarily follow that this arrangement will be accepted. The question of whether the country has competent leaders who will see it through remains. What about Japan? Republicans have criticized the Clinton administration for leaning toward China and slighting the alliance with Japan that the United States has spent the last half century building up. They say the U.S. relationship with Japan should be strengthened. They want to cooperate with Japan to advance the new round of trade talks under the World Trade Organization. In terms of macroeconomy, they are urging Japan to rebuild its economy by promoting deregulation and reform. They want to switch the alliance to a more dynamic partnership that can prevent and quickly respond to conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region and make the area more stable. The Japanese government welcomes this new direction with the hope that the incoming Bush administration will nominate many Japan experts to key posts. Tokyo had a hard time dealing with the Clinton administration. For example, U.S. negotiators would thump on the table in frustration when demanding that Japan meet numerical targets for U.S. exports to Japan. Japan was also troubled by the U.S. roller coaster-like policy toward China. During the Asian economic crisis, the United States teamed up with China and started bashing Japan. But let us also listen to what the outgoing administration has to say. Referring to Japan-U.S. relations, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Stanley Roth said that although the two countries share the same values, he felt strongly that they lacked warmth. Why? Probably because the two countries' leaders found it difficult to form a friendship, he said. According to Roth, while Clinton talked seriously with Ryutaro Hashimoto about policy matters and found Keizo Obuchi amiable, he found it difficult to hold tete-a-tete with Japanese politicians in general. Although his meetings with Chinese President Jiang Zemin were sometimes strained, he felt that he could have more productive dialogue with him, Roth said. What Japanese leaders must bear in mind is that the emergence of a Republican administration does not mean that Japan-U.S. relations will return to the honeymoon that they enjoyed during the Ronald Reagan administration. The first post-Cold War U.S. administration was the Republican government led by George Bush, Senior. Looking back, there were already signs of trouble some post-Cold War Japan-U.S. relations such as the FSX (fighter support X) project, the Persian Gulf crisis, quotas on auto parts procurement and East Asian regionalism. The slogan of Japan-U.S.global partnershipthat was presented with a bang rapidly faded after the Persian Gulf crisis. Whether the U.S. administration is led by Republicans or Democrats, it will likely move in the direction of rationalized engagement. In other words, it is expected to refrain from engaging in world affairs as much as possible unless the problem concerns vital U.S. interests. Such signs were also apparent when the Asian economic crisis and the East Timor situation flared. I expect this tendency to grow with the Republican administration, which will treat allies as equal partners and expect them to share the burden to prevent and deal with conflicts as such. Japan is urged to be independent. Unless it can do so and present itself as a dependable partner, the United States may eventually regard China as its principal counselor in the Asia-Pacific region. [Japan ought to like Bush, but is worried too...] Japan's priority is to reform and rebuild its economy. It should also build political stability and strengthen its political leadership to build a framework of confidence and cooperation within the region. At the same time, it should advance the guidelines on Japan-U.S. defense cooperation and take part in peacekeeping operations in earnest. In short, it needs the determination to be a full-fledged independent player. It also needs to clearly say yes or no to others. All new administrations try to stress they are different from the outgoing ones. But the Republican administration is urged to follow the policies of engagement toward the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea), the incorporation of China into the international system and respecting regional multilateral frameworks supported by the Democratic administration. It should also show discretion toward the deployment of national missile defense systems. Such behavior also strengthens the Japan-U.S. alliance. Gently providing a counterbalance to stop a government from swinging or leaning too far is also an important role for an ally. _______________________________________________ Crashlist website: http://website.lineone.net/~resource_base
