By David Buchan in Vienna
Published: January 17 2001 15:52GMT | Last Updated: January 18 2001 07:17GMT



Opec on Wednesday carried out its threat to cut oil output by 1.5m barrels a day
starting from February 1, saying that otherwise "unchecked production could
precipitate a price collapse".

This deal, in which relative moderates such as Saudi Arabia prevailed over price
hawks such as Iran and Kuwait, amounts to a 5.6 per cent cut, on paper, in the
official 26.7m barrel a day production total of the 10 Opec members with quotas. The
deal does not cover Iraq, whose oil sales are subject to United Nations supervision.

The figure of 1.5m b/d had been most frequently touted ahead of the meeting as the
likely result. But Opec's market monitoring subcommittee, composed of Nigeria, Iran
and Kuwait, had called for a reduction of 1.7m b/d, and in the fuller session of
Opec Qatar had joined these countries in supporting a 1.7m b/d cut.

While these three countries eventually rallied to the 1.5m b/d figure, Iraq was
quick to criticise it.

Naji Sabri al-Hadithi, its Opec ambassador, said: "We wanted the [Opec quota]
countries to cut by 3m b/d - 2m b/d in February and 1m b/d in March".

However, Iraq indirectly influenced the size of the Opec cut by assuring Opec
partners it intended to bring exports back to a "normal" level of slightly more than
2m b/d compared with less than half that in recent weeks. This Iraqi statement
clearly convinced even Opec moderates of the need for a sizeable cut.

Ali Naimi, Saudi oil minister, said Wednesday's decision was based on the assumption
of a return to "fullstream" Iraqi exports. Ali Rodriguez, Opec secretary general,
expressed the hope that non-Opec countries might follow the cartel in curbing
production. There is no sign of this happening.




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