[apropos of whether or not there'll be a real recession, here's what Deutsche Bank's Ed Yardeni thinks -- and it is true that the markets have come back a little: is this a dead-cat bounce, or is Wall St already anticipating the next *upturn* beyond the present slowdown? If Yardeni and others are right, there will be no real recession. The loco will keep on accelerating until it falls right off the energy-depletion cliff...] Subject: New On Dr Ed's Economics Network Saturday evening, February 3, 2001 COMMENT: In June 1988, I wrote a Topical Study titled "The Coming Shortage of Bonds." At the time, the notion was farfetched. Not any more. Indeed, according to our well-informed friends at Wrightson.com, the 30-year Treasury bond that will be auctioned on Thursday will be the last long bond issued by the Treasury until the middle of the next decade. The Congressional Budget Office now projects budget surpluses totaling $5.6 trillion over the next 10 years. This awesome sum provides lots of room to cut taxes and increase spending, while still paying off the remaining $2.8 trillion in public debt--which I think may not be such a good idea. Fiscal policy will be very stimulative this year. So will monetary policy. Indeed, the Fed has already cut rates by 100 basis points even though the jobless rate remains at the lowest level since the early 1960s! This is why I've been saying that the recession is over as far as investors are concerned. http://www.yardeni.com _______________________________________________ Crashlist website: http://website.lineone.net/~resource_base
