On Jul 29, 2010, at 22:23, Anne & Lynn Wheeler wrote:

> On 07/28/2010 10:34 PM, [email protected] wrote:
>> The design goal for any security system is that the number of
>> failures is small but non-zero, i.e., N>0.  If the number of
>> failures is zero, there is no way to disambiguate good luck
>> from spending too much.  Calibration requires differing outcomes.
>> Regulatory compliance, on the other hand, stipulates N==0 failures
>> and is thus neither calibratable nor cost effective.  Whether
>> the cure is worse than the disease is an exercise for the reader.
> 
> another design goal for any security system might be "security proportional 
> to risk". 

Warning:  self-promotion (well, rather: project promotion) ahead.

This is exactly what we are trying to do in an EU project in which I'm 
involved. The project, called MASTER, is more concerned with regulatory 
compliance than security, even though security of course plays a large role.

The insight is that complex systems will probably never have N = 0 (in Dan's 
terms), so we will have to calibrate the controls so that the N becomes 
commensurate with the risk.  To do this, we have two main tools:

First, there is a methodology that describes in detail how to break down your 
high-level regulatory goals (which we call control objectives) into actionable 
pieces. This breakdown tells you exactly what you need to control, and how. It 
is controlled by risk analysis, so you can say at any point why you made 
certain decisions, and conversely, if a regulation changes, you know exactly 
which parts of your processes are affected (assuming the risk analysis doesn't 
have to be completely redone as part of the regulatory change).

Second, as part of this breakdown process, you define, for each broken-down 
control objective, indicators.  These are metrics that indicate (1) whether the 
process part you are currently looking at is  compliant (i.e., has low enough 
N), and (2) whether this low N is pure luck or the result of well-placed and 
correctly functioning controls.

One benefit of having indicators at every level of breakdown is that you get 
metrics that mean something *at this level*. For example, at the lowest level, 
you might get "number of workstations with outdated virus signatures", while at 
the top you might get "money spent in the last year on lawsuits asserting a 
breach of privacy". This forces one to do what Andrew Jaquith calls 
"contextualisation" in his book, and prevents the approach sadly taken by so 
many risk analysis papers, namely simply propagating "risk values" from the 
leaves of a risk tree to the root using some propagation rule, leaving the root 
with a beautifully computed, but sadly irrelevant, number. Another benefit is 
that if some indicator is out of some allowed band, the remedy will usually be 
obvious to a person working with that indicator. In other words, our indicators 
are actionable.

The question of whether the cure is worse than the disease can't be settled 
definitively by us.  We have done some evaluation of our approach, and 
preliminary results seem to indicate that users like it. (This is said with all 
the grains of salt usually associated with preliminary user studies.) How much 
it costs to deploy is unknown, since the result of our project will be a 
prototype rather than an industrial-strength product, but our approach allows 
you to deploy only parts.

Best,

Stephan
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