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On Mar 18, 2012, at 6:38 PM, Randall Webmail wrote:

> From: "ianG" <[email protected]>
> 
>> ... So after a lot of colour, it is not clear if they can break AES. 
>> Yet.  OK.  But that is their plan.  And they think they can do it, 
>> within their foreseeable future.  Maybe soon.  Or maybe they can, and 
>> they've managed to get their own agency to at least believe it's in the 
>> future, not now.  Or maybe they can at 128, but not larger?
> 
> I suppose we've all seen the "proofs" that brute-forcing PGP would take a 
> supercomputer the size of the planet longer than the age of the universe to 
> accomplish.   Was the math faulty in those proofs, or is it true, and the NSA 
> is just empire-building?

They aren't "proofs" in the sense of rigorous mathematics, but they're 
arguments.

There's nothing wrong with the math, but they have certain assumptions. If they 
know something that we don't -- for example, presume they've solved the 
algebraic equation that is AES, then that would lead to a different set of math.

Frankly, I think that Jonathan Thornburg has a better line on it -- it's much 
more efficient to develop a theory of how to break passphrases. I can much 
better see how a large computing engine could help with that.

Let me handwave a bit. Suppose using scrapings from social networks, web 
surfing, etc., you come up with a model of your opponent and can compute in a 
week the 2^30 most likely passphrases they'd use. You know have a much simpler 
task now, one that should take anything from minutes to a couple weeks to do.

Also note that Alice is talking to Bob, you can likely get the message by 
attacking either Alice or Bob.

But really, I wouldn't do the crypto at all. I would just go for traffic 
analysis. And huge supercomputers would help with that. Good traffic analysis 
makes crypto irrelevant.

        Jon



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