-Caveat Lector-
from alt.conspiracy
-----
As always, Caveat Lector.
Om
K
-----
<A HREF="aol://5863:126/alt.conspiracy:512080">Contrails, Ozone and Bromine
</A>
-----
Subject: Contrails, Ozone and Bromine
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Jim Bowery)
Date: Sat, Apr 3, 1999 11:15 AM
Message-id: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
A while back I was musing to a friend of mine that the 'contrail
conspiracy' if it were real, might involve a small group of wealthy
or powerful people seeing if they can have enough impact on the ozone
layer to cause some sort of geopolitical or other effect. While I
haven't really looked into the actual reports of contrails, and
cannot therefore assess whether the following theory fits the observations
or whether there is even anything unusual about the contrails being reported,
the possibility of global environmental attack by a small, but elite, group
was intriguing enough to see if it should be entertained by conspiracy
theorists. My preliminary investigation yielded the following:
http://www.ciesin.org/docs/011-491/011-491.html says:
This current assessment (in Chapter 6), as well as the last assessment
(WMO, 1990), has pointed to the greater potential of bromine than
chlorine per molecule to destroy stratospheric ozone.
http://www.islandnet.com/~wilco/investsky.htm states that since
1991 ethylene diBROMIDE has been an ingredient of JP-8 -- a widely used
jet fuel -- and that "Several independent sources claim that samples of
fallout from the lingering smoke trails have been independently tested and
found to contain ethylene dibromide (EDB)." They do mention the fact
that jets routinely dump fuel during landing approaches, but they don't
attempt to rationalize this fact with the observed contrails for some
unknown reason.
Also, interestingly, none of the contrail conspiracy theories mention ozone
depletion as far as I have looked (which I admit isn't far).
This would tend to discredit the contrail conspiracy theorists, but the
official NASA site dedicated to the study of the environmental effect of
stratospheric aircraft (see: hyperion.gsfc.nasa.gov) has no mention of
JP-8 or ethylene or dibromide according to the Alta Vista advanced search
criterion: 'host:hyperion.gsfc.nasa.gov and (dibromide or jp8 or "jp-8" or
ethylene* or edb)'.
Also, at the ozone faq http://www.landfield.com/faqs/ozone-depletion/stratcl/
there is only this (which doesn't mention jet fuel):
"Methyl bromide is also produced in the combustion of leaded gasolines,
which use ethylene dibromide as a scavenger. One estimate for the methyl
bromide emissions from this source gave 9-22 ktons/yr, but another
estimate gave only 0.5-1.5 ktons/yr."
>From this casual observation, it seems _everyone_ has a mental block when it
comes to considering JP-8 as a source of ozone depletion...
OK, so I'll do a rough assessment:
The ozone faq states the dominant source of bromine is oceanic with
leaded gasolines a distant fourth:
Oceans: 60-160 ktons/yr
Fumigation: 20-60 ktons/yr
Biomass burning: 10-50 ktons/yr .
They also state:
"This assessment estimates the atmospheric lifetime of methyl bromide
to be 0.8-1.7 years (best estimate 1.3 years) and its ozone depletion
potential to be about 0.6 . However, recent laboratory and field
experiments [Shorter et al.] indicate that large amounts of methyl bromide
are consumed by soil bacteria. This would push the atmospheric lifetime
down to the lower limit of 0.8 years, and reduce the ozone depletion
potential to 0.4; it may also require adjustments in the estimated sources."
This FAQ is generally skeptical of claims that man-made source of halogens
are a serious environmental threat, so using it as a guide is a good way
to take a conservative bias toward these issues:
In order to assess the real threat from a 'bromine conspiracy' one would
need to come up with an estimate of how much one could 'enrich' jet fuel
with ethylene dibromide, and how much bromine could be delivered as 'cargo'.
Jumbo jets can carry about 100 tons of cargo. That means 2000 jumbo jet
flights could probably double all other sources of bromine combined AT THE
GROUND. 2000 jumbo jet flight equivalents is a major undertaking, and the
number of flights could only be cut by, perhaps 25% (to 1500 flight
equivalents) by heavily biasing the jet fuel with EDB. Further, EDB is
almost all Bromine by weight so it doesn't do much good to carry pure Br2
rather than EDB.
However, since the skeptical FAQ's numbers are for Bromine sources AT THE
GROUND, there is a potentially large gain to be had by dumping Bromine
directly to the stratosphere. How big is an open question. One could
reasonably estimate that the number of flights could be reduced by a
factor of 5 if all bromine were dumped directly to the stratosphere.
So now we're looking at 300 jumbo jet flight equivalents to double the
effective bromine from all other sources delivered to the stratosphere
for approximately 1 year.
Finally, at there is the fact that bromine, once present in the
stratosphere, is synergystic with chlorine as it doesn't require oxygen to
be present for the ozone to be broken down. This means at the equator,
where solar flux is most intense and therefore the ozone:oxygen
equilibrium is biased toward ozone, UV absorbtion could be far more
effectively attacked via Bromine than via additional Chlorine as Chlorine
is the dominant halogen from all sources.
So I would have to say that my original guess was about right -- that it
is within the capability of a small group of very wealthy and/or powerful
individuals to do substantial ecological damage that would be noticed over
the course of a year.
Further, it may be that the damage would be at least as great at the
equatorial regions as it would at the temperate latitudes if the bromine
were evenly dispersed throughout the global stratosphere. If it were
more localized, the damage could be even more intense and noticable, but
the linkage to a deliberate attack would be more likely to be discovered
as such differentials would be covered up only if there were ozone
depleated vortexes spinning off from the polar cyclones, as happens from
time to time over New Zealand and Australia.
--
The promotion of politics exterminates apolitical genes in the population.
The promotion of frontiers gives apolitical genes a route to survival.
Change the tools and you change the rules.
=====
Subject: Re: Contrails, Ozone and Bromine
From: tscottme <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Sat, Apr 3, 1999 12:10 PM
Message-id: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Jim Bowery wrote:
>
<snip the ridiculous uninformed bits>
> They do mention the fact
> that jets routinely dump fuel during landing approaches, but they don't
> attempt to rationalize this fact with the observed contrails for some
> unknown reason.
>
>
Aircraft *do not* routinely dump fuel during approaches. Fuel may be dumped
by
those aircraft with such capability, but this is done in emergencies. The
airline industry operates on one of the smallest margins of any major
industry.
The price of fuel and foolish economics of the matter should cause even the
gullible to question this claim. Perhaps you can offer an explanation for the
routine "pissing away" of thousands of dollars of fuel. The fact that such an
obvious error makes it into sources you cite gives me great doubts about the
rest
of your claims.
> Also, interestingly, none of the contrail conspiracy theories mention ozone
> depletion as far as I have looked (which I admit isn't far).
>
>
You haven't read very much on the subject, I guess.
> This would tend to discredit the contrail conspiracy theorists, but the
> official NASA site dedicated to the study of the environmental effect of
> stratospheric aircraft (see: hyperion.gsfc.nasa.gov) has no mention of
> JP-8 or ethylene or dibromide according to the Alta Vista advanced search
> criterion: 'host:hyperion.gsfc.nasa.gov and (dibromide or jp8 or "jp-8" or
> ethylene* or edb)'.
>
>
Maybe that's because the chemical nature of EDB makes it particularly
vulnerable
to the incinerator temps of the combustion areas of the jet. Ask anyone that
knows the subject and see if they don't verify that the 1000 deg F + temps of
the
combustion chamber are the most difficult obstacle in engine design. The
expensive prices of jet engines is due to the exotic metals used in the
turbine
and the precision balancing needed throughout the engine. Only the most
complex
and highly engineered metals are able to avoid melting. A fragile, volatile
molecule ain't gonna make it through the combustion process.
>
--
Scott Methvin
"The entire Balkans aren't worth the bones of one
dead soldier" Kaiser Wilhelm
=====
Subject: Re: Contrails, Ozone and Bromine
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Jim Bowery)
Date: Sat, Apr 3, 1999 1:15 PM
Message-id: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
tscottme ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote:
<invective, distortion and ignorance, in that order>
To your distortion: http://www.islandnet.com/~wilco/investsky.htm says:
But in 1998, a US Air Force public affairs officer told residents of Las
Vegas that their sudden upsurge of respiratory ailments could have come
from "routine" fuel-dumping by military aircraft reducing weight for
landing.
I mentioned this asserted fact about military 'jets' in passing, not as a
fact upon which I was basing my argument, as you falsely implied, but
toward questioning the credibility of the contrail conspiracy theorists.
I don't need to describe how 'commercial airlines' remain profitable under
such practices since I make no such claim and not even the source, which I
was questioning in that instance anyway, makes any such claim. Your
challenge to do so is based on distortion and your statement that my other
sources cannot be relied upon if I do not answer your challenge without
logical foundation.
If you wanted to be logical about this attack, you should have tried my
reliance upon ethylene dibromide as a jet fuel component since I offered
no sources for that assertion other than the conspiracy theorist page.
Now, to your ignorance:
You imply that NASA and other ozone depletion authorities don't report
any significant ozone depletion from EDB because "the chamical nature of
EDB makes it particularly vulnerable to the incinerator temps of the
cumbustion areas of the jet." The clear implication of this is that you
believe the ozone depleting properties of EDB are dependent on it
remaining uncombusted. Nothing could be further from the truth. It is
Bromine that is the catalyst which attacks ozone, not EDB. Bromine must
be liberated from EDB in order to be effective at destroying ozone.
Although I didn't state it, I assumed that the EDB would be oxidized
because anyone who understands the first thing about ozone depletion
would assume the same.
PS: You imply that others have already put forth an ozone depletion
conspiracy theory of the contrail phenomena. Please provide references.
--
The promotion of politics exterminates apolitical genes in the population.
The promotion of frontiers gives apolitical genes a route to survival.
Change the tools and you change the rules.
-----
Aloha, He'Ping,
Om, Shalom, Salaam.
Em Hotep, Peace Be,
Omnia Bona Bonis,
All My Relations.
Adieu, Adios, Aloha.
Amen.
Roads End
Kris
DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER
==========
CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic
screeds are not allowed. Substance�not soapboxing! These are sordid matters
and 'conspiracy theory', with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright
frauds is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects
spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRL
gives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers;
be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credeence to Holocaust denial and
nazi's need not apply.
Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector.
========================================================================
Archives Available at:
http://home.ease.lsoft.com/archives/CTRL.html
http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/
========================================================================
To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email:
SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email:
SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Om
